WTC Final Scenarios – What do India, Australia and South Africa need to do to reach the WTC Final?

With 15 Tests remaining in the current World Test Championship (WTC) cycle, several teams are still in contention, and no team is assured of a place in the top two. Here’s how the teams currently stand.

South Africa
Percentage: 59.26, remaining matches: SL (1 home test), Pak (2 home)

South Africa’s comprehensive victory in Durban is just one shot in the bag, of the four they need, to be sure of a place in the WTC finals, whatever other results. If they lose the second Test against Sri Lanka and win both against Pakistan, they would still have a good chance of qualifying at 61.11%, but Sri Lanka and India could both overtake them – Sri Lanka, if they win 2-0 against Australia. , and India, if they win at least three of their remaining four Tests against Australia. Australia can also go above 61.11 with four wins and a draw, but in that case India and Sri Lanka would finish behind South Africa.

If South Africa beat Sri Lanka in the second Test and drew Pakistan 1-1, they would still finish with 61.11, but they would be assured of a place in the final as Sri Lanka would only reach than 53.85 if he won both Tests against Australia. So in this case only Australia or India can overtake South Africa.

Sri Lanka
Percentage: 50.00, matches remaining: SA (1 away test), Aus (2 home)

The Durban defeat means Sri Lanka can finish with a maximum of 61.54% if they win their remaining three Tests. This would still guarantee a place in the final, as only India or Australia can finish higher. If they lose one more test and win two, their percentage will drop to 53.85, which will then leave them dependent on several other results. Currently, South Africa, India, Australia and New Zealand can exceed 53.85.

New Zealand
Percentage: 50.00, matches remaining: English (2 at home)

New Zealand’s sloppy fielding in Christchurch could have destroyed any realistic chance of qualifying for their second WTC final. A 3-0 series win over England would have taken them to 64.29%, but this defeat – and the three points they lost due to poor over-rate – means the most they can get is 55.36. This could still be enough for them to finish in the top two but for that to happen several results would have to work in their favor. For example, if the Australia-India series finishes 1-1, as South Africa’s two home series and Sri Lanka’s home series against Australia do, then New Zealand will finish second behind ‘Australia, but that will always leave it dependent on too many other results.

India
Percentage: 61.11, matches remaining: Aus (4 away)

India’s emphatic victory in Perth takes them back to the top of the WTC points table and keeps their chances of qualifying for the final at Lord’s very much alive next year. To be certain of finishing in the top two, India must beat Australia 3-0: this would take India to 62.28, which would be more than Sri Lanka’s maximum of 61.54 if they win its three remaining tests, and more than the South. Africa would have a rating of 61.11 if they beat Pakistan 2-0 but do not sweep Sri Lanka. If South Africa also swept Sri Lanka 2-0, they would reach 69.44, meaning India, with three wins and two draws in Australia, would be second on the points table.

However, these scenarios rely on other teams maximizing their points. If that doesn’t happen, India could still come away with far fewer points. If, for example, these results come from the upcoming key series:

India loses to Australia 2-3
New Zealand draw England 1-1
South Africa draw 1-1 at home in their two remaining series, against Sri Lanka and Pakistan
Australia draw 0-0 in Sri Lanka

Australia would finish top with 58.77, but India’s 53.51 would still be good enough for second place, ahead of South Africa (52.78), New Zealand (52.38) and Sri Lanka (51.28). So, India’s ranking also depends on how the other results pan out.

Australia
Percentage: 57.69, Remaining Matches: Ind (4 Home Tests), SL (2 Away)

The loss in Perth means Australia have a long way to go to finish in the top two without depending on other results. Given that South Africa and Sri Lanka can both finish with over 61%, Australia needs four wins and a draw from their last six matches to finish ahead of Sri Lanka’s maximum of 61.54; in this case only South Africa, with a maximum of 69.44, could finish ahead of them.

If India won the current series 3-2, Australia could still finish ahead of them, but only if they swept the away series against Sri Lanka 2-0. In this case, Australia would finish with 60.53, slightly ahead of India with 58.77. In that case, they would surely finish in the top two, as only South Africa could surpass that figure.

Pakistan
Percentage: 33.33, remaining series: SA (2 away), WI (2 home)

Pakistan’s domestic form has shown some recovery, but it is probably too late in this cycle. If they win each of their remaining four tests, they would finish with 52.38. In such a case, they would still need several results to be in contention. If, for example, Sri Lanka loses 0-1 in South Africa and draws 1-1 against Australia, India loses 1-2 in Australia and New Zealand loses 1-2 against England , then Pakistan’s 52.38 would be good enough for second place. behind Australia.

England
Percentage: 42.50, matches remaining: New Zealand (2 away)

England’s victory in Christchurch – albeit with a three-run penalty – improved his percentage slightly to 42.50. It is almost certain that this will not be enough for qualification, although there is a small mathematical chance of finishing second with 47.73 if several other results are favorable: if India wins all the tests against Australia, who in turn beat Sri Lanka 1-0, who in turn drew the second Test against South Africa, who then lost both Tests against Pakistan, who beat West Indies by a margin of 1- 0 at most, England could then still finish second behind India. Needless to say, even the biggest England fan isn’t counting on that.

Bangladesh And West Indies are out of competition for a place among the top two.

S Rajesh is the Chief Statistics Editor of PK Press Club. @rajeshstats

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