“You are not optimistic enough!” An XRP enthusiast exclaimed on X last week after Ripple, who uses the token for cross -border transactions, announced that the American securities and exchange committee had abandoned his file for them.
Many others share this excitement, and it is understandable, because the conclusion of this long -standing legal battle has increased a weight that has hampered XRP’s performance compared to the wider market during the 2021 bull race. Furthermore, there is an XRP media and hopes that the token could be part of the American strategic reserve.
That said, the recent price action does not reflect optimism above, with key momentum indicators indicating a major change in trend, warning of a notable price slide to come.
XRP jumped from 11% to $ 2.59 last Wednesday, encouraging news from the dry. Since then, the follow -up has been anything but bullish with the prices between $ 2.30 and $ 2.50, despite the optimism that the reciprocal commercial prices of President Donald Trump on April 2 could be more measured than initially planned.
Three -line break graph
The first indicator reporting a downward trend reversal is the three -line breakdown, which focuses only on price movements while filtering noise in the short term, helping to identify trend changes as suggested by the market and not rules for arbitrary / discretionary negotiation.
The graph consists of vertical blocks called lines or bars (green and red). A bull reversal occurs when a green bar occurs with higher prices than the highest point of the last three red bars. On the contrary, a lower change is represented by the emergence of a new red bar which goes beyond the lowest point of the three previous green bars.
In the case of XRP, a new red bar occurred at the beginning of the month within the weekly time and was held intact following the news from the dry. The “weekly” aspect means that this graph brings together information on prices over a week.
The new red bar indicates a bullish change in the momentum. Similar models characterized the beginnings of the prolonged markets of the bears in 2021 and early 2018.
MacD
The Histogram of Divergence of Mobile Average Convergence (MacD), used to assess the strength of trends and trend changes, produces deeper bars under the zero line on the weekly graph. It is a sign of the reinforcement of the momentum.
The same indicator turned positive in November, after which prices went from $ 1 to more than $ 3.
The 5 and 10 weeks simple mobile averages (SMAS) also crossed the lowering, suggesting that the path of the slightest resistance is down.
Bollinger groups
The Bollinger strips-the volatility bands placed two standard deviations above and below the 20-week SMA of XRP-were widened in response to the net price rally at the end of 2024 and at the beginning of this year.
Historically, prices tended to drop after the net widening of Bollinger strips, as observed after mid-201 and early 2018.
When bull?
A firm decision of $ 3, the top recorded on March 2, would invalidate the downstream configuration, canceling the high Lower model to suggest an increased technical vision.
Some analysts expect XRP to reach up to $ 10 by the end of this decade.
