“This week we saw significant blocks in topside BTC buy spreads,” Jean-David Péquignot, chief commercial officer of Deribit, told CoinDesk.
An options flow of this magnitude and repetition often reflects institutional positioning rather than retail activity, given the capital required and the precision of strike price selection.
The moment is remarkable for two reasons. First, it suggests that confidence in bitcoin’s recent rebound has risen from below $58,000 to $64,000 earlier this month. More importantly, the deal targets settlement on July 31, two days after the Federal Reserve’s July 29 interest rate decision. The flow of call spreads suggests that at least some large traders expect the meeting to serve as a catalyst for a move toward $72,000.
Fed funds futures are currently pointing toward a hold at the July meeting, with most trackers putting the likelihood of the central bank keeping its benchmark rate unchanged between 3.5% and 3.75% in a range of 75% to 80%. The remaining chances are split between an increase in rates and, to a lesser extent, a decrease.
Fears of a rate hike eased after June inflation data, which showed a sharp deceleration in price pressures at both the consumer and producer levels. Much of the relief was due to a sharp drop in oil prices during the month, linked to a ceasefire between the United States and Iran; Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, remained stable.
