BELÉM:
Pakistan’s rooftop solar production will exceed daytime energy demand on parts of the national grid next year, a senior government official told Reuters, marking a significant shift driven by a record boom in solar installations and a rapid decline in grid consumption.
The growth has reduced emissions and electricity bills for some consumers, but it has also intensified financial pressure on debt-ridden power utilities. Prolonged declines in network-based demand have weakened revenues at a time when the sector is already struggling with structural losses.
Speaking on the sidelines of the COP30 climate conference in Brazil, Aisha Moriani, secretary of the Ministry of Climate Change, said the country would experience “negative grid-related demand during certain hours of the day, as behind-the-meter solar energy completely offsets grid consumption.”
While parts of Europe and Australia occasionally experience negative electricity prices due to an oversupply of solar power, Pakistan will become one of the first large emerging markets where rooftop generation exceeds grid-tied demand for extended periods in key industrial areas.
Lahore, which has one of the highest rooftop solar penetration rates in Pakistan, is expected to be the first major city to experience negative daytime demand. Faisalabad and Sialkot, where industrial areas have quickly adopted solar panels, will likely follow, Moriani said.
Power shortages and repeated tariff increases have prompted many of Pakistan’s 250 million people to turn to solar power. The country has become the world’s third largest importer of solar panels, and the share of solar energy in its electricity mix now exceeds that of neighboring China.
Moriani, Pakistan’s lead negotiator at COP30, said negative demand events would become more frequent during sunny summer afternoons, industrial holidays and days with moderate temperatures when solar production remains high but cooling needs remain low.
She added that Pakistan’s main challenge was not the pace of renewable energy growth but how quickly the grid, regulatory structures and market design could adapt. The government is planning new tariffs for large solar users and revised tariff structures to ensure companies with rooftop systems contribute to network maintenance costs.
Pakistan’s grid-tied electricity demand is expected to grow 3-4% this year, a slower pace than long-term averages. Consumption could rise more sharply next year, but that rise could be dampened by continued growth in rooftop solar, Moriani said.
The rise in solar energy adoption has also influenced Pakistan’s liquefied natural gas strategy. Moriani said the country had started renegotiating LNG contracts with Qatar’s main supplier and canceling cargoes previously supplied by Italy’s Eni, seeking more flexible delivery schedules and lower prices.
Although no formal negotiations took place with Qatar at COP30, Moriani said the conference created “diplomatic space for engagement with energy ministers and trade representatives.”
She added that Pakistan’s priority was to align gas import plans with budgetary constraints, demand projections and seasonal trends. “Pakistan seeks stability and affordability, not expansion of its dependence on LNG,” she said.
