Daytime temperatures are 3 to 5°C above normal, while at night they are 1 to 3.5°C above the climatological average from 1981 to 2010.
Northern Pakistan is experiencing below-average precipitation and snowfall this winter, raising concerns over accelerated melting of glaciers and possible glacial lake-induced floods (GLOFs), the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) said in a statement on Monday.
According to the PMD, reduced rainfall and prolonged clear weather contributed to unusually stable atmospheric conditions and significantly high temperatures in Gilgit-Baltistan during the first three weeks of February.
Daytime temperatures were recorded 3 to 5°C above normal, while nighttime temperatures remained 1 to 3.5°C above the climatological average from 1981 to 2010. Gilgit and Bunji experienced the highest daytime warming, with Chilas and Bunji also showing notable increases in minimum temperatures, reducing nighttime refreezing and accelerating the melting of snow and glaciers in the regions. of medium to low altitude, adds the press release.
“Reduced nighttime cooling further enhances meltwater runoff into glacial lakes. Rapid melting increases water accumulation in lakes dammed by moraines and glaciers, thereby increasing the likelihood of GLOF events in downstream valleys,” the PMD reported.
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The department’s outlook for February to April 2026 predicts a high probability of above-normal temperatures in northern Pakistan, including Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir. Areas most at risk include Gilgit, Ghizar, Hunza, Bunji, Chilas and Astore.
Average temperature anomalies recorded between February 1 and 22 showed daytime temperatures rising 4.7°C above normal in Gilgit, while nighttime anomalies reached 3.4°C in Chilas.
The PMD said it was closely monitoring temperature trends, glacier melting conditions and hydrometeorological parameters and would issue timely advisories to local authorities and communities.
