By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin fell more than 3.5% to below $67,000 as escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed investors out of risky assets and toward the U.S. dollar.
As the conflict escalates, Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane that carries about a fifth of the world’s oil supply.
Shipping rates for crude and liquefied natural gas tankers jumped after vessels were targeted in the region and several operators suspended operations. Brent crude has soared more than 13% in the past five days as freight costs for big tankers hit record highs.
The shock hits the financial markets. The dollar index (DXY) is up nearly 1% and U.S. Treasury yields have risen as investors move away from risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, reflecting expectations that central banks may face renewed inflationary pressure from rising fuel prices.
Bitcoin had briefly approached $70,000 earlier in the week, but reversed course when conflict broke out. Cryptocurrency prices nevertheless remained range-bound despite the escalation.
The first U.S. strike against Iran over the weekend pushed bitcoin and ether lower, triggering about $300 million in long liquidations, but analysts at QCP Capital described the deleveraging as orderly compared to previous episodes earlier this year.
Analysts added that options markets showed a brief uptick in short-term volatility, although positioning suggested traders were prepared for weekend risk.
“Recalling the previous US strike on Iran last June (also a weekend), BTC fell below $100,000 when the news broke, only to return above it on Monday, and then hit a high of $123,000 a few weeks later,” QCP Capital analysts wrote. “Although the scale of this attack is much greater than last year, price developments could point to the first signs of history repeating itself.”
Options flows show buyers are positioning for a potential rebound beyond the $70,000 mark. This suggests that investors are looking for a rebound this month after the severe market downturn.
The Strait of Hormuz remains at the heart of the standoff, with conflicting statements from Iranian and U.S. officials over whether the waterway is closed. US President Donald Trump has said the war is expected to last “four to five weeks”. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- March 3: launch of the SolCex mobile application on Google Play and the Apple App Store.
- Macro
- March 3, 5:00 a.m.: flash of the euro zone inflation rate year-on-year for February (previous 1.7%); Core YoY (previous 2.2%)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 3: Antalpha Platform Holdings (ANTA), pre-market, $0.19
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and calls on governance
- ShapeShift DAO votes to appoint PTT as Tokenomics Workflow Leader for a 6-month term, fully compensated in FOX tokens to eliminate stablecoin costs. Voting closes on March 3.
- Decentraland DAO votes to explore automatic execution of approved proposals and soft duration limits for signer keys while maintaining emergency monitoring. Voting closes on March 3.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 3% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $66,918.56 (24 hours: +0.57%)
- ETH is down 4.04% at $1,959.34 (24 hours: unchanged)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 3.45% at 1,927.49 (24h: +0.59%)
- Ether CESR composite staking rate up 1bp to 2.86%
- BTC funding rate is -0.0009% (-1.0162% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.89% at 99.25
- Gold futures are down 0.30% at $5,278.60
- Silver futures are down 4.65% at $84.18
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 3.06% at 56,279.05
- Hang Seng closed 1.12% lower at 25,768.08
- The FTSE 100 is down 2.76% at 10,478.54
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 3.49% at 5,777.18
- DJIA closed Monday down 0.15% at 48,904.78
- The S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,881.62
- The Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.36% at 22,748.86
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 0.59% at 34,541.30
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.82% at 3,741.78
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is up 9 basis points to 4.05%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 1.83% at 6,762.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 2.30% at 24,448.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 1.74% at 48,104.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 58.81%
- Ether/bitcoin ratio: 0.029284
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 977 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $29.14
- Total fees: 2.65 BTC / $179,647
- CME Futures Open Interest: 104,220 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 15.8 ounces
- Market capitalization BTC vs gold: 4.46%
Technical analysis
- Weekly BTC/USD remains technically bound below the 200-week EMA, with a weekly relative strength index (RSI) of 27.89 and a lack of bullish divergence confirming sideways movement between $65,000 and $70,000.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Monday at $185.24 (+5.34%), –5.64% at $174.80 in pre-market
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.73 (+5.54%), –5.66% at $20.50
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.45 (+5.70%), –4.97% at $8.98
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): close at $16.43 (+0.86%), –5.11% at $15.59
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.49 (–2.83%), –3.76% at $15.87
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.55 (+6.03%), –4.83% at $10.04
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.47 (+2.65%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.43 (+1.38%), –4.23% at $38.72
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $96.14 (+15.22%), –6.57% at $89.82
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $33.81 (+7.71%), –2.69% at $32.90
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $137.65 (+6.29%), –4.42% at $131.56
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $8.73 (+9.95%), –4.24% at $8.36
- Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.39 (+8.36%), –5.41% at $6.99
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.88 (+32.73%)
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.12 (–0.88%)
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flow: $458.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.24 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.27 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flow: $38.7 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.67 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.67 million
Source: Farside Investors
While you were sleeping
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi Disavows Solana Meme Token After It Crashes 75% (CoinDesk): Japan’s PM says she has no knowledge or involvement in a Solana-based meme token that briefly reached a market cap of $27.7 million before collapsing.
The war in Iran is live: Israel hits Tehran and Beirut; drones hit US embassy in Riyadh (Reuters): Explosions ripped through Tehran and Beirut and financial markets around the world collapsed at the prospect of prolonged disruption to global energy supplies following US-Israeli attacks on Iran.
U.S. closes two Gulf embassies as Iran steps up retaliation (The New York Times): The United States closed its embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait after drone attacks and urged Americans to immediately leave 14 Middle Eastern countries as Iran expanded its retaliatory strikes.
Dow Jones Futures Fall; oil prices rise (The Wall Street Journal): Futures on the three major US indexes fell at least 1.4%. Stocks in Europe and Asia skidded and oil prices rose, as the Middle East conflict showed signs of escalation on its fourth day.
