Trump may be ready to abandon the war in Iran. Markets don’t yet know exactly what this means.
Bitcoin traded at $67,545 Tuesday morning, roughly flat in 24 hours after recovering from a fall below $65,200 that briefly marked its lowest level since the war began in late February. Ether held above $2,000 at $2,062, up 0.4% on the day. Solana SOL fell 0.9% to $83.07, XRP fell 2.2% to $1.32, and dogecoin slipped 2.1% to $0.09. SOL and XRP led the weekly losses in the top 10, at 8% and 6.4% respectively.
The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that Trump and his aides estimated that forcing the Strait of Hormuz would push the conflict beyond its four- to six-week timetable, and that the president told his advisers he was prepared to end the campaign even if the Strait remains largely closed.
S&P 500 futures climbed 0.8% according to the report. WTI crude erased its previous jump to $107 and stabilized near $103 after Iran hit a Kuwaiti crude carrier in Dubai earlier in the session.
The whip saw ended a brutal period for traditional markets. The S&P 500 is now on its longest daily losing streak since 2022. The MSCI Asia Pacific is heading for its worst month since the 2008 financial crisis. Treasuries extended gains and the dollar weakened against most G10 currencies.
The relative performance of crypto continues to stand out against this backdrop. The total crypto market capitalization stands at $2.32 trillion, roughly unchanged over the past week, a period in which the Nasdaq 100 fell about 5%. Bitcoin has spent the entire war trading between around $65,000 and $73,000, selling off on each escalation but refusing to break structurally lower, even as shares form a clear downtrend.
“Cryptocurrencies have pulled back, but look stronger than stocks,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro. “Although the cryptocurrency market remains below its 50- and 200-day moving averages, it finds support in the lows seen since early February, demonstrating horizontal stabilization after the crisis, while stocks form a downtrend.”
JPMorgan noted Monday that bitcoin is weathering the Iran crisis better than gold and silver, a notable observation given that gold’s unprecedented losing streak has been the most disorienting signal in global markets in weeks. The traditional safe haven falls during an active war while the supposedly most volatile asset maintains its range.
The question heading into April is what a potential end to the conflict actually means for crypto.
A ceasefire would remove the overall risk that has kept bitcoin range-bound, but a Hormuz shutdown, even after a U.S. withdrawal, would keep oil high and inflation expectations rigid, complicating the rate cut path the market has been waiting for.
Monday’s drop below $65,200 and instant recovery above $67,000 looked like a stop chase that found real demand below. Whether that demand continues through April will depend on whether Trump’s push to end the war turns into a real way out or just another headline in a month full of them.
