By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
If macroeconomic concerns related to the Iranian conflict weren’t enough, new research has reignited what could be considered an existential threat to bitcoin. quantum computing.
A Google paper suggests that breaking the Bitcoin blockchain’s cryptography with quantum computers could require fewer than 500,000 qubits, a fraction of previous estimates. A separate paper from Caltech and quantum startup Oratomic suggests that a system with around 26,000 qubits could break the encryption standard that secures the Bitcoin and Ethereum blockchains, in around 10 days. (“Qubits” are considered the processing power units of quantum computers.)
A quantum hack would compromise crypto’s core principles of “trust the code” and the “hard money” value proposition, according to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments. Around 25-30% of the total bitcoin supply is already vulnerable to future quantum computing attacks.
While these attacks remain theoretical, according to Dragonfly managing partner Haseeb, they set a deadline: The network may need to move to quantum-secure technology by around 2029.
The leading cryptocurrency by market value has already retreated to $66,250 from the high of over $68,000 reached during Asian trading hours. This comes as demand conditions appear weak and real or inflation-adjusted bond yields rise, discouraging investment in risky and emerging technologies such as bitcoin.
As the market as a whole followed bitcoin lower, one token stood out. QRL, the native cryptocurrency of the Quantum Resistance Ledger, surged 40% in 24 hours, reaching a high of $1.62. The token’s market capitalization stood at just over $127 million at the time of writing.
QRL describes itself as “an externally audited, enterprise-grade blockchain platform, secure today against the quantum computing advances of tomorrow.”
Unlike Bitcoin, which relies on elliptic curve cryptography that makes it vulnerable to quantum attacks, QRL uses a quantum-secure signature scheme called XMSS (eXtended Merkle Signature Scheme).
XMSS is a post-quantum cryptography algorithm recognized by standards bodies such as NIST for its resistance to quantum attacks. By design, XMSS generates unique signatures that are extremely difficult for quantum computers to decipher, making QRL theoretically “future-proof” against quantum threats.
The takeaway: Projects like QRL could attract more attention and potentially gain market value as concerns about quantum threats increase. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Cryptocurrency
- March 31: FTX Recovery Trust will distribute approximately $2.2 billion to creditors.
- Macro
- March 31, 9:00 a.m.: S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 US Home Price Index YoY for January (previous 1.4%)
- March 31, 9:45 a.m.: Chicago US PMI index for March (previous 57.7)
- March 31, 10:00 a.m.: Consumer confidence from the American Conference Board for March (previous 91.2)
- March 31, 10:00 a.m.: US JOLTS job offers for February (previous 6.946 million)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Votes and calls on governance
- Stake DAO CRV and BAL vote on their bi-weekly gauge to distribute CRV and BAL inflation among various liquidity pools. Voting closes on March 31.
- SuperRare DAO votes to consolidate its treasury management under the RareDAO Foundation by migrating remaining balances and officially concluding its legacy network engagement and grant programs. Voting closes on March 31.
- Aventus DAO votes to simplify AVT issuances to a flat daily rate, increase node staking requirements, and replace ongoing fees with an upfront allocation of application chain tokens. Voting closes on March 31.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
- March 31: edgeX token generation event (EDGE).
- March 31: WorldLand (WL) will be listed on KuCoin, Gate and others.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 0.82% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $66,053.74 (24 hours: -2%)
- ETH is down 0.31% at $2,015.51 (24 hours: -1.84%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 1.1% at 1,893.79 (24h: -2.15%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 5 Basis Points to 2.76%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0018% (2.0093% annualized) on Binance
- The DXY is unchanged at 100.44
- Gold futures are up 0.9% at $4,598.60
- Silver futures are up 3.59% at $73.11
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 1.58% at 51,063.72
- Hang Seng closed 0.15% higher at 24,788.14
- The FTSE is up 0.69% at 10,197.55
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.48% at 5,568.53
- DJIA closed Monday up 0.11% at 45,216.14
- The S&P 500 closed down 0.39% at 6,343.72
- The Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.73% at 20,794.64
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed unchanged at 31,934.94
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged at 3,475.76
- The 10-year US Treasury yield is down 1.8 bps to 4.324%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.85% at 6,442.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.8% at 23,323.75
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 0.91% at 45,880.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 58.58% (-0.06%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03054 (0.66%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 996 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $31.78
- Total fees: 2.5 BTC / $167,768
- CME Futures Open Interest: 102,450 BTC
- BTC valued in gold: 14.6 ounces.
- Market capitalization BTC vs gold: 4.46%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows daily fluctuations in Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV.
- The index remains stuck in a sideways pattern, indicating a calm market and low volatility.
- Traders should watch for a breakout amid the latest quantum computing threat, as it would signal panic and increased price turbulence.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Monday at $160.79 (-0.22%), +0.47% to $161.54 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $89.91 (-4.00%), +0.12% at $90.02
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $17.15 (-4.72%), +1.52% to $17.41
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $33.27 (-3.37%), +0.69% at $33.50
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $7.80 (-2.74%), -0.13% at $7.79
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closes at $11.83 (-7.58%), unchanged in pre-market
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $13.91 (-7.70%), +1.01% to $14.05
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.18 (-5.54%), +0.73% at $8.24
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $32.33 (-8.13%), +2.78% to $33.23
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $6.20 (-4.32%), +2.74% to $6.37
Crypto Cash Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $121.44 (-3.64%), +0.45% at $121.99
- Strive (ASST): closed at $9.37 (-4.92%), +1.18% to $9.48
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.01 (-0.50%), unchanged in pre-market
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.95 (-5.10%), +0.63% at $0.95
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.04 (-5.45%)
ETF Feed
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flows: $69.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.98 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flow: $5 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.56 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.7 million
Source: Farside Investors
