Asian stocks posted their best day in months and S&P 500 futures jumped after the president announced he would address the nation Wednesday evening with an “important update” on Iran. Oil pared its losses as the United Arab Emirates reportedly prepared to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force.
Bitcoin traded at $67,950 on Tuesday, up 0.2% over 24 hours, as a wave of optimism about the potential end of the Iranian conflict lifted risk assets across the board. Ether rose 1.6% to $2,100, its biggest daily gain in weeks.
XRP gained 0.5% to $1.34, dogecoin added 0.5% to $0.09, and BNB edged up 0.4% to $616. Solana’s SOL was the biggest laggard, falling 0.7% to $83.14 and extending weekly losses to 8.7%.
The MSCI Asia-Pacific index jumped 4%, its best session since the start of the war, with nearly 10 stocks up for every stock down. Asian tech jumped 6.5%, led by Samsung and SK Hynix with increases of more than 9% each. S&P 500 futures climbed and the index posted its biggest one-day gain since May.
The catalyst was Trump telling reporters that he expected the war to end within two to three weeks and that a deal with Iran was not a prerequisite for ending the conflict. He announced a national speech on Wednesday at 9 p.m.
Eastern to provide what it called an “important update.” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told the EU Council president that Tehran had “the necessary will to end this war” but expected guarantees against future aggression.
Separately, the Wall Street Journal reported that the UAE was preparing to help the United States and its allies reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force, which would make it the first Gulf state to enter the conflict as a combatant. Brent crude returned above $105 after Tuesday’s decline.
The crypto market’s reaction has been muted compared to stocks, a trend that has lasted for weeks. Bitcoin spent the entire war gaining between $65,000 and $73,000 while stocks oscillated violently with every headline. The gap between the crypto sideways range and the declining stock market correction level remains the most notable divergence in the multi-asset situation.
There are reasons to be optimistic and cautious beyond geopolitics. Morgan Stanley has received approval for a Bitcoin ETF charging just 14 basis points, 11 less than the category average. The product opens access to Morgan Stanley’s 16,000 financial advisors managing $6.2 trillion, a channel that previously had no direct exposure to Bitcoin ETFs.
Alex Blume, CEO of Two Prime, highlighted three catalysts that could send bitcoin higher in the second quarter: the Morgan Stanley ETF, the continued success of Strategy’s STRC preferred stock product in financing bitcoin purchases, and a quick resolution to the war in Iran.
“Many uncertainties in the market may be resolved soon,” Blume said in an email to CoinDesk. “Coupled with new purchasing power, a strong second quarter could be ahead.”
Gold advanced for a fourth straight day to near $4,700, although its nearly 12% decline in March was its worst monthly performance since October 2008. The precious metal’s continued weakness during active war continues to shatter historic precedent.
Whether Trump’s speech on Wednesday produces a true departure from the road or just another headline in a month that has been filled with them will determine whether this rally takes place. As one analyst said: “I’m not convinced in the long term. Investors will soon want concrete evidence that the end of the war is in sight.”
