Brazil’s main exchange, B3, will offer six new derivatives contracts on April 27 that will allow investors to bet on the likelihood of future events, ranging from the price of bitcoin to movements of the dollar and the Ibovespa index.
The instruments, called Event Contracts, operate on a similar framework to prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. Prices vary up to 100 reals ($19), with the price of each contract reflecting the market’s estimated probability of an outcome.
B3’s contracts are regulated by the Brazilian Securities Authority (CVM) and designed for professional investors, the exchange said.
The six contracts cover mini-futures and spot prices of the Ibovespa index, the US dollar and bitcoin. They are structured with fixed payouts and known risks from the start, like the cryptocurrency price prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Traders will not take delivery of the underlying assets and settlement will instead take place in cash. For now, only investors with more than 10 million reais ($1.9 million) in assets or CVM certification can trade the new products.
Luiz Masagão, B3’s vice president of products and clients, said the launch was part of a broader initiative to modernize derivatives trading in Brazil.
The exchange already offers contracts linked to central bank decisions in several countries and has closely followed the growth of predictive platforms abroad, Masagão added.
Late last year, the exchange revealed that it was working on its own tokenization platform and stablecoin, both of which are expected to launch this year.
The launch of B3 marks the first federally regulated prediction market in Brazil, although it enters an increasingly crowded field. Platforms like Prévias and Palpitada operate domestically in a regulatory gray zone, while US-based Kalshi recently partnered with XP International, Brazil’s largest brokerage, to offer event-driven contracts tied to Brazil’s economic performance.
This decision also comes against a backdrop of boom in the global forecasting market. Notional volume is now approaching $160 billion, according to a Dune dashboard, while unique users have crossed the 3 million mark.
Polymarket and Kalshi dominate the space globally, accounting for the majority of notional volume. Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, recently doubled its stake in Polymarket, bringing its total commitment to nearly $2 billion.
Yet the regulatory landscape remains unstable on both sides of the equator. In Brazil, legal experts say it is unclear whether oversight of prediction markets should ultimately fall to the CVM, the Central Bank or the Finance Ministry.
