Bitcoin The price action indicates that momentum from U.S.-Iran ceasefire headlines is fading and markets are looking for substantial progress that could ease war-related tensions in the global economy.
The largest cryptocurrency briefly topped $76,000 early in the day, only to fall back into a repeat of Tuesday’s choppy trend. This drop follows a 10% increase, mainly due to the announcement of the ceasefire between Iran and the United States a week ago.
However, even as optimism persists and President Donald Trump suggests the conflict is nearing an end, progress in negotiations to restore oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that accounted for 20 percent of global flows before the war began, remains limited.
“A ceasefire extension alone is no longer enough. Markets need tangible progress such as restored energy flows, compressed crude premiums, and sharper disinflation,” QCP Capital, one of the world’s largest digital asset market makers, said in an email.
“In the meantime, this remains a story of partial normalization rather than complete repair. Constructive, but not yet comfortable.”
Traders should keep an eye on oil prices as signs of normalization should first be evident in energy markets. WTI recently traded near the weekly low of $87.50 and Brent around $90, a level it has held since April 8.
The continued decline in the 30-day implied volatility indices for Bitcoin and Ether suggests that traders expect substantial progress soon.
In the meantime, Solana (SOL) and could experience increased volatility as open futures contracts linked to these tokens hit multi-week highs. These increases reflect a growing demand for leveraged exposure, which often amplifies price fluctuations due to liquidations and increased market turbulence.
“Solana has significantly outperformed the market over the past day, trying to rebound from an important long-term support line, but has failed to do so for over two months now,” Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said in an email. “We will only be able to declare a victory for the bulls once they consolidate above the $105 level, at which point we can talk about a return above the 200-week moving average.”
In traditional markets, the MOVE index, which measures the volatility of U.S. Treasuries, fell to 65%, reversing the war-induced rise to 115% in March. This is optimistic for risky assets as the stability of the US bond market, which supports global finance, helps ease credit and financial conditions. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today. For a full list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is the trend
Signal of the day
The chart shows the hourly price action of Bitcoin in candlestick form since March 31, highlighting a steady upward trajectory that has taken the asset from around $65,700 to around $76,000. The chart appears bullish with consistently higher lows, but there is a catch.
As part of this uptrend, the price briefly rose above $76,000 at least twice, and both attempts failed to produce a decisive breakout. From a technical analysis perspective, this indicates a developing double top pattern, where two peaks form near the same level, signaling a potential exhaustion of bullish momentum.
If the price falls below $73,300, the low formed between the two highs, the double top trend would be confirmed, suggesting the possibility of a deeper decline to $70,000.
Conversely, a sustained move above $76,000 could attract more traders and strengthen the case for a rally to $88,000.
