NFL Confidential: How does the Dexter Lawrence trade impact the draft? Leaders and scouts give their opinions

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Just before we were all set to submit our final mock drafts for the 2026 draft season, the New York Giants and Cincinnati Bengals decided they wanted to throw us a curveball and make a decision that will have major ramifications for Thursday night’s festivities.

The Giants now have two top-10 picks after acquiring the 10th overall selection from the Bengals for Pro Bowl defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence. With the trade just completed Saturday night, we’ve already learned how New York potentially plans to use its top two picks — and that could lead to a top-five upset.

Of course, the Giants-Bengals trade isn’t the only draft news heading into Thursday night’s first round. So we asked our sources around the league for the latest news regarding Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson and his draft status.

Here’s what we learned about the Giants’ draft plans, why the Bengals made the trade and what to expect for Simpson in the 2026 NFL Draft.

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Giant change in draft order could lead to another offensive top-five pick

Ralph Vacchiano: A few days ago, for many, it was like a lock that the Giants were going to take a defensive player with the fifth overall pick in the NFL Draft. But now they have two picks in the top 10 for the second time in five years, after acquiring the 10th overall pick from the Bengals for Dexter Lawrence.

They’ll almost certainly use one of them on a defensive player, but it’s unclear what they’ll do with the fifth.

“It’s got to change the way they think,” one NFL executive told me. “There are a few elite offensive players that didn’t seem like a great fit for them, given how bad their defense was and what we think Harbaugh wants to focus on. Now they can grab one at 5, and it’s possible they still get the defensive player they wanted all along at 10.”

It’s all speculation at this point, but many NFL sources believe the Giants were focusing on either Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles or Ohio State safety Caleb Downs at 10 — impact players, who could become leaders in the Giants’ defense. Opinions were divided on which player Harbaugh preferred. And many seem to believe that one, and perhaps both, might still be there at 10 o’clock.

And that would open up some intriguing possibilities at No. 5. Much of the immediate speculation centered around Arizona State receiver Jordyn Tyson, who one NFL scout told me last week “could be the best receiver in this draft when all is said and done.” He was considered one of the most “underrated” players in this year’s class, although he was increasingly criticized by the media and is now probably considered a top-10 pick.

The 6-foot-3, 203-pounder, who impressed scouts during his limited professional workout Friday, would give the Giants a dangerous 1-2 punch at receiver playing alongside a healthy Malik Nabers. He would also be insurance in case Nabers, who is recovering from a torn ACL, needs time to return to his old form.

“If [Tyson] is as good as I think it is, the Giants would be put on offense over the next few years,” the executive said. “[Quarterback] Jaxson Dart would have everything he needs.”

Arizona State’s Jordyn Tyson could be headed to New York after Saturday’s trade. (Photo by Kevin Abele/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Two other intriguing offensive possibilities for the Giants at No. 5 are Notre Dame running back Jeremyiah Love, Ohio State wide receiver Carnell Tate and Miami (Fla.) offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa (or whoever they view as the best tackle in the draft).

“The fifth pick probably gives them the option to be one of the top two offensive playmakers in the draft or the best offensive lineman, and they need both,” the scout told me. “And then if they can land Styles or Downs at 10, it’s a home run.”

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Why the 10th pick wasn’t worth much to the Bengals

Vacchiono: The shock and surprise that the Bengals, of all teams, would give up the 10th overall pick in a trade was generally met with a touch of understanding. The way things seem to be going on draft day, few people seemed to think the draft was going to break the Bengals’ path.

There is no defensive tackle worthy of a near top 10 pick. The best edge rusher will most likely be gone, along with the top corner and probably the top linebacker too. Of course, nothing was locked, but they were faced with a table in which they might not find immediate help on defense, where they needed it most.

“I think they knew they were in a really bad situation the way things were going,” an NFL assistant general manager told me. “They might have a really good player at 10, but probably not at the position they need. And they’re not looking at two or three years down the road. They obviously think they can make a run now.”

The Bengals certainly have the offense to do that as long as quarterback Joe Burrow is healthy. But their offseason goal has been to rebuild the statistically worst defense in the league. They brought in help in free agency, such as edge rusher Boye Mafe, defensive tackle Jonathan Allen and safeties Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger. But they were still looking for a real wrecker after losing Trey Hendrickson.

Lawrence has a better chance of being that than anyone he thought he could get at No.10.

“They were going to have to trade,” one NFC scout told me. “That’s the only thing that would have made sense, unless they just wanted to add another piece to their offense. It wasn’t going to help them. They’re desperate to fix their defense. That’s why the 10th pick may be a very high price to pay, but it also made a lot of sense.”

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Is Ty Simpson a first round pick? Opinions still mixed on where Alabama QB lands

Eric D. Williams: With less than a week remaining and Ty Simpson’s stock seemingly rising, league sources I spoke with still aren’t convinced the Alabama quarterback will be a first-round pick.

An NFL front office executive told me he doesn’t believe Simpson is a first-round talent. He identified the Arizona Cardinals and Pittsburgh Steelers as potential candidates.

However, another league source close to the matter believes a team could move up to secure Simpson’s services in the first round.

“I could see someone trading up to 32 with the Seahawks in order to get a fifth-year option as a first-rounder,” the league source told me. “That fifth-year option would be nice. The Ravens traded for Lamar. [Jackson] for this reason. Great decision.

“Ozzie Newsome had the courage to do it when he came out.”

Ty Simpson in Joel Klatt's top 50 players

The league source went on to say that he liked that Simpson played in a pro-style offense under offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb at Alabama. However, the league source remains concerned about Simpson’s size (6-foot-1, 212 pounds) and the fact that he only started 15 games in college.

“He’s doing well,” the league source told me. “He sees the field well. He anticipates well. It’s easy to project him to the NFL because of the type of offense he ran in college. I would be concerned about playing him early though, because he hasn’t played in a lot of games. He’s a cause for concern as a first-round pick for me.”

The league source mentioned the Cardinals, Steelers, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins and Dallas Cowboys as potential landing spots.

Meanwhile, an NFL agent I spoke with thinks Simpson will be a second or third round pick.

“The only team I saw face him in the first round [and it would be a very bad move] It’s Arizona,” the NFL agent told me. “The Cardinals have a bad roster. They should add more choices, not give up choices to progress, and find someone they don’t need to progress for. »

The agent compared Simpson to Matt Corral, Sam Howell and Desmond Ridder coming out of college, all quarterback prospects who moved up during the draft process but have so far failed to make it in the NFL.

“The discussions are all about the media, not the teams,” the NFL agent said of Simpson’s late ascension to the selection committee. “It wasn’t shocking that Will Levis didn’t go in the first round, or that Malik Willis was drafted in the third round. They were better prospects than Simpson. He’s more like Corral and Sam Howell.”

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