Bitcoin has not yet bottomed, and a new all-time high is unlikely this year, said Michael Terpin, an early Bitcoin investor and author of Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich.
“Before a bull market for bitcoin can be called, the price must move back above $100,000 and no support has manifested,” according to Terpin, who said the bottom would be seen at $57,000 sometime in October.
“Despite a double-digit gain so far in April, we are still in a Bitcoin slide.”
Terpin is often called “the godfather of crypto” for his involvement in the industry around 2013, when the digital assets sector was still small and somewhat misunderstood by the general public. Among his many ventures, Terpin founded Transform Group, one of the first public relations firms focused on blockchain companies, CoinAgenda, one of the first conferences in the field, and BitAngels, a group of cryptocurrency angel investors.
His bearish view for this cycle contrasts with the consensus among analysts that February’s low around $60,000 marked the end of the bear market and the start of a new uptrend. Most of these bullish analysts cited further inflows into US-listed spot ETFs and the token’s resilience during the Iranian conflict and surging oil prices as part of their outlook.
In an interview with CoinDesk, Terpin said that during Asian trading hours on Monday, “the psychological barrier of $80,000 was strongly rejected, with high oil prices a factor.” He explained that this is typical at this point in the Bitcoin cycle, with the lows being rejected until the final capitulation.
Although Jason Fernandes, market analyst and co-founder of AdLunam, agrees with Terpin that the bottom has yet to be seen, he disagrees with the timeline, adding that the market may not have fully capitulated yet. Capitulation is a phase in which long-term holders exit in large numbers, signaling a spike in selling pressure.
“Terpin makes a reasonable case for a bottom later in the cycle, but I don’t think Bitcoin has completely capitulated yet,” Fernandes said. “Historically, sustained lows tend to coincide with a clear exhaustion of both speculative leverage and macroeconomic uncertainty, and we are certainly not there yet.”
Terpin emphasized that the fundamentals point more toward a bottom that includes the historical average of the one-year period from the bottom of each cycle.
“It says somewhere around $57,000,” he said, predicting it would happen in October, around the same time as last year when BTC first fell below $100,000, followed by the October 10 crash, when $19 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out in the largest single-day event on record.
Fernandes added that broader macroeconomic conditions could continue to weigh on risk assets, including Bitcoin.
“Liquidity conditions remain tight and risk assets, as a whole, continue to adapt to a higher and longer rate environment,” he said. “Until we see a more decisive change in monetary policy or a true devastation event in crypto markets, downward volatility remains likely.”
“Too bearish”
The author and entrepreneur also said that bitcoin would not see an all-time high (ATH) this year.
However, Mati Greenspan, crypto market analyst and founder of Quantum Economics, disagrees.
“While I hesitate to disagree with the ‘Godfather of Crypto,’ his views seem too bearish to me,” Greenspan said. “We still have plenty of room to run this year, given the level of institutional adoption and growing interest, a new all-time high (ATH) certainly seems plausible.”
AdLunam’s Fernandes also said market sentiment has yet to reach levels typically associated with cycle lows.
“Sentiment has not reached the kind of extreme pessimism that typically characterizes cyclical troughs,” he said. “To me, that means we may still need an additional boost – whether or not it fits exactly into the $57,000 to $59,000 range – before a sustainable base is formed.”
Regarding Terpin’s $100,000 level, Fernandes said it was more of a psychological signal than a hard technical threshold.
“A true bull market is defined by higher structural highs and strong capital inflows, not just a single price level,” he said. “That said, the psychological effects of reaching $100,000 could trigger exactly this behavior,” Fernandes added.
