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Six weeks into the MLB season, the landscape of the AL Central changed in an instant Monday afternoon.
Detroit Tigers pitcher and back-to-back Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal was scratched from his scheduled start Monday night against the Boston Red Sox, followed by a report that he will undergo surgery for loose bodies in his left elbow.
Although Skubal is expected back by the end of the season, surgery is expected to keep the left-handed ace sidelined for several months. Not only does this injury jeopardize the division-favorite Tigers for the foreseeable future, it throws a huge curveball to anyone trying to predict who will win the American League Cy Young Award.
Skubal entered the season with +400 odds to win the award, the shortest number among all board members. To make things even more interesting in this race, consider that the second favorite for the AL Cy Young was Red Sox left-hander Garrett Crochet, who also finds himself on the injured list after an unusually shaky start to the season.
Another preseason Cy Young prospect, Minnesota Twins right-hander Joe Ryan, left his last start with elbow tightness and will need season-ending surgery.
So who is left?
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Two New York Yankees, Cam Schlittler and Max Fried, are currently favorites at +220 and +330, respectively, but those short numbers don’t offer a ton of value. With so much time left and pitcher injuries being so common, I wanted to target someone whose odds would offer a bigger payoff.
Texas Rangers ace Jacob deGrom won the National League Cy Young Award twice during his tenure with the New York Mets, and currently has a +1.500 rating after his Tuesday night start against the red-hot Yankees. deGrom, in seven starts, has a 3.11 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP and an impressive 47 strikeouts to just eight walks.
Health must be a concern for deGrom, who missed much of the final years of his tenure with the Mets due to injury, as well as much of the 2023 and 2024 seasons with the Rangers. But since the start of last season, he has stayed healthy and demonstrated the durability he displayed early in his career.
Given his pedigree and the number of injury-riddled aces in the rest of the American League, a dominant season could net DeGrom more hardware. There could also be a sentimental incentive to vote for the prolific ace and reward him after all the injuries he has suffered over the past few years.
deGrom is still an elite ace, and in what is now a wide-open race, I like him at 13-1 odds to win yet another Cy Young, this time in the American League.
PICK: Jacob deGrom (+1300) to win AL Cy Young




