Bitcoin fell back below $80,000 on Wednesday after a brief breakout attempt, as on-chain data suggested the rally was already running into profit-taking pressure.
CryptoQuant said bitcoin’s 37% rebound from April lows still looks more like a bear market rally than a confirmed trend reversal, with realized profits hitting their highest level since December and short-term holders increasingly emerging with a gain.
Bitcoin’s rally has pushed traders back into profit, with holders cashing out at the fastest pace since December as recent buyers sell harder and harder, they wrote.
But the bounce still looks more like a relief rally than a true breakout of a bull market, since profits remain well below levels seen during past sustained uptrends, while unrealized gains are already high enough to prompt more selling, according to CryptoQuant. Traders are also pricing in an unrealized profit margin of 18%, the highest since June 2025, a level where profit-taking has historically accelerated.
Singapore-based market maker Enflux offered a different reading, focusing less on holder behavior and more on the macroeconomic catalyst that pushed Bitcoin’s initial move higher.
Enflux said Bitcoin’s surge above the $80,000 level was part of a broader risk-off reaction after President Donald Trump suspended a U.S. naval operation linked to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a move that sent oil prices lower and stocks higher.
But even though Enflux said the rally “makes sense mechanically,” he cautioned that markets could overestimate the durability of the catalyst, noting that Trump’s previous diplomatic pauses since March were undone within days or were misinterpreted by traders.
Glassnode, however, offered a more constructive view, arguing that Bitcoin’s recent move reflects an early structural recovery rather than just a short-lived macroeconomic rebound.
The analytics firm said Bitcoin reclaimed two closely watched on-chain levels in a note this week: the real market average at $78,200 and the short-term holder’s basis cost near $79,100, levels that often serve as a dividing line between weaker and stronger market regimes.
Glassnode identified around $85,200 as the next major resistance zone, while highlighting improving U.S. spot ETF inflows and continued negative perpetual funding, a sign that some traders remain positioned on the downside even as prices recover.
Still, Glassnode did not declare a clean breakout.
Long-term holders are starting to take profits, while high realized losses across the market suggest that bitcoin still needs stronger spot demand to support a more sustainable rise.
Les marchés prévisionnels ont fait preuve d’une prudence similaire. On Polymarket, traders have assigned relatively low odds to Bitcoin extending sharply toward $85,000 or higher this week, suggesting the market remains hesitant to treat the recent rebound as a confirmed breakout.
