More than $3 trillion in digital assets could become vulnerable to theft within four to seven years, according to a new report from Project Eleven..
Project Eleven focuses on post-quantum security and digital asset migration and recently announced a collaboration with the Solana Foundation to prepare its network against the threat of quantum computing.
“The digital assets industry holds more than $3 trillion in aggregate value, and almost all of it is secured by the same class of cryptographic primitives: elliptic curve digital signatures,” which are vulnerable to quantum computing attacks, the report said.
But it’s not just crypto that’s at stake here. The report states that the same public-key cryptographic security used by Bitcoin, Ether and stablecoins also underpins banking systems, cloud infrastructure, authentication networks and military communications.
Project Eleven’s 110-page report, including CEO Alex Pruden was on stage at Consensus Miami 2026also indicates that sufficiently powerful quantum computers could use Shor’s algorithm to derive private keys from public keys, allowing attackers to forge signatures and take control of digital wallets and accounts secured by elliptic curve cryptography.
This means that blockchains, banking infrastructure, cloud systems, military communications and other digital identity systems are also vulnerable, not just bitcoin, ethereum, stablecoins and other blockchains, the report points out.
Project Eleven says a “Q-Day” scenario, the arrival of a cryptographically relevant quantum computing cable to break widely used public-key cryptography, could occur as early as 2030, no later than 2033.
“Our analysis suggests that, based on current trends, Q-Day is more likely to occur by 2033, and potentially even as early as 2030,” the report said. “The window for the world to migrate to post-quantum cryptography is narrowing.”
And here’s why it gets so complicated, the report explains: Large systems often take five to more than ten years to migrate, depending on the complexity of their networks.
Another difficult challenge is how the transition actually happens, as migrating all vulnerable quantum systems and blockchains to secure networks involves a process that requires a coordinated and simultaneous transition from all users, exchanges, custodians, wallet providers and miners.
Read more: To freeze or not to freeze: Satoshi and the $440 billion bitcoin under threat from quantum computing
“The discrepancy is not technical,” the report said. “The gap lies entirely in coordination, urgency and willingness to accept the costs of migration. »
When it comes to Bitcoin, things become even more complicated as upgrades are historically slow and often become politically controversial.
“The Bitcoin SegWit upgrade – a relatively modest change compared to the PQC migration – took more than two years from proposal to activation (2015-2017) and triggered a controversial chain split,” the report recalls.
Read more: What is the fork? Why Bitcoin Technology Changes Impact Price
“The distributed nature of blockchain networks means that the migration to post-quantum cryptography can take almost a decade, longer than other centralized systems.”
Pruden, who authored the report with CTO Conor Deegan, warned that Bitcoin’s migration to post-quantum crypto could prove even more difficult than Taproot’s, as it would require coordinated action between users, exchanges, custodians and miners. He also said he personally leans toward “recycling” the 5.6 million to 6.9 million vulnerable BTC tokens, worth up to about $500 billion at current prices, into Bitcoin’s supply curve rather than allowing a quantum attacker to sweep them away.
Pruden’s Project Eleven report ultimately acknowledges that the issue creates tension between Bitcoin’s fixed supply philosophy and its commitment to property rights.
Read more: Bitcoin quantum debate divides as Adam Back proposes optional upgrades rather than forced freeze
