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Bitcoin rebounded to over $77,000, sparking a broader market rally that sent the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) and CoinDesk 80 (CD80) indices up more than 1% since midnight UTC. Some coins, such as privacy-focused Dash and XDC Network’s XDC token, have gained 10% in the past 24 hours.
Some analysts continue to maintain a cautious stance, saying the market is caught between regulatory tailwinds and macro-level headwinds.
“Short-term action is driven by [ETF] “Fund outflows and macro prudence, while long-term positioning is supported by regulation, institutional access and reserve asset narratives,” Naeem Aslam, former hedge fund trader and chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets, told CoinDesk in an email.
Aslam praised President Donald Trump’s directive to the government and the Federal Reserve to review access to the payment system for fintech and crypto companies as favorable to digital assets.
Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said bitcoin’s latest rebound from the 50-day simple moving average sets the stage for a decisive move in the coming days.
“Bitcoin, late last month, found support during declines up to the $76,000 region,” Kuptsikevich said in an email. “Over the past few days, this support has been reinforced by the 50-day MA, as has the market. On the other hand, resistance at the 200-day MA continues to decline, bringing the red lines of the bulls and bears closer together and marking the moment when the market will choose its trend for the months to come.”
A market update from fintech and digital assets platform 1Konto has placed the onus on a sustainable recovery in ETF inflows.
“ETF flows have become one of the cleanest transmission channels between traditional wallets and Bitcoin spot demand. If these flows turn negative along with long-term sales, Bitcoin trades more as a macro collateral than a standalone scarcity asset,” the company said in its daily market update.
We believe Bitcoin can still stabilize ahead of broader risk assets, but the next sustained move higher will likely require either a calmer Treasury market or clear evidence that ETF demand is recovering, the firm said in its daily market update, she added.
In traditional markets, futures linked to the Nasdaq 100 index rose 0.8% and oil fell as the Senate moved to restrict Trump’s ability to wage war against Iran. Investors are also interested in Nvidia’s results on Wednesday. Stay vigilant.
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today. For a full list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is the trend
Signal of the day
Bitcoin’s five-day losing streak ran out of steam, with prices nearly testing the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) late Tuesday.
Since then, BTC has rebounded above $77,000. The setup is quite simple: prices are stuck between the 50-day SMA support and the 200-day SMA resistance.
The two averages are converging, with the 200-day moving average falling and the 50-day moving average rising, narrowing the range and creating pressure for a decisive move in either direction in the coming days.
A break below the 50-day SMA near $76,000 would likely signal that the rebound has failed and open the door to a retest of February lows near $73,000. On the other hand, a sustained close above the 200-day SMA near $82,500 would constitute a significant technical development, potentially attracting marginalized buyers and shifting the broader trend from bearish to neutral at a minimum.
