Bitcoin is stabilizing near $73,500, about 10% below its monthly high of $81,000. The data suggests the stand reflects a shortage of new buyers rather than a plethora of sellers.
Risk assets rose broadly after reports that U.S.-Iran talks could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil passage, lifted sentiment.
“Expectations of a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions and the normalization of the Strait of Hormuz are reducing pressure on oil prices,” analysts at Spanish bank Bankinter wrote in a market note.
In this favorable context, Bitcoin’s weakness seems specific to cryptography. Long-term holder supply hit a record 15.8 million BTC, according to CryptoQuant, which is normally a bullish signal because it reflects coins being held rather than traded. The company argued that the balance sheet may be hollow, reflecting a slowdown in market turnover rather than a conviction.
The supply of short-term holders has fallen by approximately 2.2 million BTC since December. This includes approximately 900,000 BTC of Coinbase reserves that have crossed the 155-day long-term holder threshold while sitting still. The disk is partly the result of inactivity and not a new purchase.
Demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs, a key driver of the rally over the past two years, has cooled. Glassnode said inflows and spot demand remain too weak to sustain movement above cost base levels near $78,000. ETF net outflows hit a record nine-day streak on Thursday.
Glassnode’s realized profit/loss ratio sits at 1.56, below levels typical of stronger bull markets. On Polymarket, traders assign a high probability to Bitcoin closing the month between $72,000 and $76,000. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today. For a full list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is the trend
Signal of the day
The altcoins (non-top 10)/bitcoin ratio is currently just above its 50-week exponential moving average, a sign of strength against the largest cryptocurrency.
If the ratio ends the week above this level, the next resistance will be a 20% increase against bitcoin, which would indicate sustained momentum in the broader altcoin universe.
