Bernstein sees AI trading, not quantum fears, behind Bitcoin (BTC) weakness

Bitcoin According to Wall Street broker Bernstein, the recent weakness is due to a slowdown in capital flows rather than concerns about quantum computing or other risks.

Growing fears that future quantum computers could eventually break the cryptography that underpins Bitcoin have become a recurring topic in crypto markets, particularly after recent Google research suggested that the computing resources needed to hack key blockchain security systems could be much lower than previously thought.

Bitcoin cash companies and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have attracted about $12 billion in inflows this year, down sharply from $60 billion in 2025, the broker said. ETFs saw net outflows of about $2.6 billion from an asset base of $75 billion, with most of the new demand coming from corporate buyers led by Strategy (MSTR).

Bernstein analysts largely attribute the slowdown to retail investors seeking AI-related opportunities, noting that the best-performing areas of crypto this year have been related to tokenized stocks and commodities.

“Bitcoin may still offer some diversification from the unusual and singular dynamic AI-driven markets we have experienced this year,” analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote in Monday’s report.

Nonetheless, analysts view the modest scale of ETF outflows as encouraging, arguing that Bitcoin ownership is increasingly dependent on momentum-driven retail flows.

Bitcoin has been going through a rough patch in recent months, dropping from around $82,000 in early May to around $63,000 today, a decline of more than 20%. The cryptocurrency briefly fell below $60,000 last week, its lowest level since October 2024, and remains about 50% below its October 2025 all-time high near $126,000.

Persistent ETF outflows, weakening investor risk appetite and a shift of capital toward AI-related stocks and high-profile equity offerings were cited as key drivers of the slowdown.

Unlike previous cycles dominated by retail traders, today’s market includes ETFs, corporate treasuries, wealth management platforms, pension funds and sovereign investors, creating a more diverse and resilient ownership base, analysts say.

Even though Bitcoin hasn’t had the excitement of AI-driven transactions this year, Bernstein argued that “being boring” doesn’t weaken its thesis as a long-term store of value and could ultimately reflect a healthier market structure.

Bitcoin ETF spot flows explain about 45% of BTC’s weekly price movements and remain the best indicator of investor adoption, Citi said in a report last week.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading around $62,600 at press time.

Learn more: Shortage of new investors in Bitcoin is bigger than Strategy sale, says Citi

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