The pressure comes from both sides. As Strategy issued more STRC to fund bitcoin purchases, its annual dividend obligations increased from about $300 million in early 2026 to $1.2 billion today, a nearly four-fold increase in less than six months.
CryptoQuant noted that the reserve needed to reach around $2.8 billion, or 24 months of coverage, for STRC to recover. Thus, Strategy declared a reserve of $1.1 billion in mid-June.
Its bitcoin therefore offers less security than its size suggests.
“The company is suffering an unrealized loss of $10.6 billion, with all Bitcoin purchased in 2024, 2025 and 2026 underwater,” CryptoQuant said. “Any forced sale of BTC at current prices would crystallize significant losses and destroy shareholder value.”
A forced sale is, however, unlikely in the near future. The strategy is not required to sell Bitcoin to defend STRC and can instead increase the dividend or sell new shares to signal that it can continue paying, tools it already uses.
CryptoQuant’s prescription is for Strategy to pause its bitcoin purchases and first replenish the reserve, then take a systematic approach to planning purchases rather than buying every time it raises capital.
The strategy can’t just turn off payments to save money. STRC’s dividends are cumulative, meaning any skipped payments still need to be made up later, and CryptoQuant said the company is unlikely to suspend them anyway, as doing so would damage its credibility with the preferred holders it needs.
The report is more precise than that offered by Benchmark-StoneX on Tuesday.
