2026 FIFA World Cup title pie: are Messi’s Argentina or Mbappé’s France the favorites?

The 2026 FIFA World Cup group matches are coming to an end and there haven’t been many surprises as we head into the knockout stage. But does that mean favorites entering the tournament should remain favorites heading into the knockout stage?

That’s what Nick Wright thinks of “First Things First.” As we almost finished day three of the World Cup, Wright dished out the percentages on the teams most likely to win the tournament.

Here’s who he has as favorites and who he might consider sneaky underdogs.

Less than 1%, but deserves a share

Suede
Ivory Coast
Senegal
Ghana
Croatia
Egypt
Canada

Wright’s thoughts: “I don’t like the way they look at all. And then all of a sudden, because of Senegal winning by margin and the other third place match situations. It’s not that they have to tie New Zealand tonight, they have to win against New Zealand tonight or they go home, I believe.”

Wright’s thoughts: “They won their group. They stole the spot from Canada. Now they can stay in Vancouver until the round of 16. It was the easiest group, but they looked good.”

Wright’s thoughts: “A team that looked better than 2%, but I hate their draw. I know Ian Darke said [Japan likes having a tough path]but I don’t agree. They now face Brazil in the round of 16. Their World Cup is therefore about to end. But they played well.”

Wright’s thoughts: “If we made this pie on Sunday morning, it could be very different. Can they beat Portugal? What can they do to win the group on Saturday? If they don’t, then all of a sudden they’ll probably be playing Spain in the first round of this tournament and they’ll probably be done.”

Wright’s thoughts: “At the time of the draw, the Netherlands must have said, ‘Well, that’s not good. What is our objective? Win our group. Oh my God. What happens if we win our group? Our first match is either against Morocco or Brazil. They won their group and their first match is against Morocco. They can absolutely win this game. It’s just that this could be a quarter-final match and instead it’s a round of 16 match.”

Wright’s thoughts: “Perfect, it’s perfect: six goals scored, zero goals allowed [in group play]. They can stay in Mexico until the quarterfinals, setting up a potentially incredible round of 16. »

Wright’s thoughts: “Norway goes down to 4%. Norway, I’m not angry. I’m disappointed. I’m disappointed that you are undefeated playing the favorite [in France] and I decided that you were willing to play for second place. It’s just disappointing. I love Erling Haaland.”

Wright’s thoughts: “Look, they’ve been excellent. Their percentage, just like the Netherlands’, is hampered by the fact that their round of 16 is brutal, against the Netherlands. If they get through that game, though, they get the winner of Canada-South Africa and then, all of a sudden, France. [in the quarterfinals]. It was the semi-finals of the last World Cup. This could be the quarter-finals here. »

Wright’s thoughts: “It’s over because the last time I did this, they had only played one game. Christian Pulisic is back and healthy. They don’t have to worry about yellow card suspensions. And they are the only team in the tournament whose path to the quarters may never involve facing a top 20 team. [if Belgium loses in the round of 32]”.

Wright’s thoughts: “If they take care of business against Colombia and win that game and the group, you can settle. If they don’t, then I think it’s not so much that Game 1 was the aberration and Game 2 was their return to form. Rather, Game 1 could be who they are in this tournament and Game 2 was the aberration. But if they win, it potentially sets up for an incredible game against Argentina in the quarters.

“If Portugal performs well on Saturday night in Miami against Colombia, then I’ll put them in the top four. I just need to see that the first game was an aberration.”

Wright’s thoughts: “They lost [to Ecuador]but they had also won everything. So I’m not going to kill them for that. The percentage is decreasing because they are in the same quadrant as France. Assuming France and Germany win their first matches, the round of 16 – which used to be the first round of 16 – will be France versus Germany.

Wright’s thoughts: “I’m not as optimistic about England as everyone else seems to be. Now, maybe the draw against Ghana was because they won their first game and weren’t worried about it. But here’s the other reason I’m a little worried about England: they’re on track for the loudest World Cup environment for a road team in over 20 years. Round of 16, England in Mexico City against Mexico for the greatest match in Mexican football history. It will be the biggest home-field advantage since Korea faced Germany in the semi-final in Seoul in 2002.

Wright’s thoughts: “They’re probably fine, but [they almost had to play Argentina due to underperforming group play]”.

Wright’s thoughts: “All they did was win by the biggest margin. They had one of the toughest groups. They won several games by more than three goals. But people don’t like that because they’re not as sophisticated as when Ronaldinho was doing the Nike commercials.

“They have been unfairly maligned for reasons that no one has explained. They won the only group with two teams from the top 10 in the world. They have arguably the best coach in the tournament. They also have a great run. They will probably also play England or Mexico after their emotional match in the quarter-finals. If they succeed, you will play against Argentina or Portugal after their very emotional match in the semi-final. They had the best defense of the tournament so far and one of the guys who could win the Golden Shoe.”

Wright’s thoughts: “I don’t know how much credit should be given to France [its win over Norway]given what Norway ended up doing. But obviously they looked great.

“They have the most talent of any team in the tournament.”

Wright’s thoughts: “Argentina are currently the favorites. They haven’t allowed a goal. Lionel Messi seems to be a man on a mission.

“The wave counter cannot be higher.