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Spain’s 1-0 victory Friday night may have put a damper on some teams’ World Cup plans.
The victory against Uruguay gave Spain the Group H title, meaning they will face the winner of the final group stage match between Austria and Algeria on Saturday night.
Spain is a football powerhouse, ranking third among the best FIFA programs in the world, and they would be one of the big favorites ahead of Austria (22nd) and Algeria (29th).
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Austria and Algeria could actually benefit from not winning their final group stage match (Dean Mouhtaropoulos, Charlotte Wilson/Getty Images)
This is why both teams could benefit from a lack of victory on Saturday night.
We’ve already mentioned that Spain will face the winner of the match as runners-up in Group J. So, for Algeria, a tie is arguably the best-case scenario.
In the event of a tie, Algeria would clinch a place in the round of 16 as third in Group J and would face either Belgium, Switzerland, England or Ghana. However, a loss means almost certain elimination, so you have to tread lightly.
His path will be much clearer when he takes the field at 10 p.m. ET in Kansas City, but for now, The Athletic gives Algeria less than a 1% chance of advancing with a loss. If previous games work in his favor in advance, the probability only rises to 9%.
Riyad Mahrez and the Algerian starting lineup pose before the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group J match against Jordan at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium in Santa Clara, California on June 22, 2026. (Erin Chang/ISIPhotos)
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Austria’s situation is a little different, because a defeat does not kill it completely. But since a win or draw means facing Spain, it may simply be a matter of hoping for a loss and qualifying for the tiebreakers, which, again, will become clearer as the day goes on.
At the time of publication, Austria have a 38% chance of progressing with a defeat. This percentage would increase to 65% with a Ghana victory at 5 p.m. ET, then to 72% with an Uzbekistan victory or draw against DR Congo at 7:30 p.m. ET.
However, if Ghana loses or draws Croatia and then DR Congo wins, Austria will be eliminated with a defeat. He would therefore have to accept his fate, try to win or equalize and worry about Spain later.
Austrian fans cheer at Dallas Stadium during the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group J match between Argentina and Austria on June 22, 2026, in Dallas, Texas. (Torbjörn Tande/DeFodi Images)
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The quick recap: Algeria wants to equalize because a victory means facing Spain, and a defeat practically equals elimination. Austria may have to face the situation reluctantly rather than relying on tiebreakers, but their true interest, and perhaps effort level in the game, will be known at 10 p.m. ET.
All this to say that Algeria intentionally scoring a late own goal for their own benefit may not be out of the question.
