Mow is not the first to claim that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle has changed. After bitcoin hit an all-time high ahead of the April 2024 halving, several analysts suggested Growing institutional demand following the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States could change the pattern that has historically followed each halving. Others, however, argued that it was too early to conclude that the cycle had changed.
$55,000 more likely
Not everyone agrees. Several analysts have recently argued that bitcoin is near market bottoms or still falling, although they rely on different indicators and models.
CoinDesk market analyst Omkar Godbole recently wrote that if you were wondering how much bitcoin is likely to fall, the answer, at least according to a historically accurate contrarian indicator, is not much.
This indicator is based on Bitcoin’s 50- and 100-week simple moving averages. The 50-week average, which represents about a year, is very close to falling below the 100-week line, forming what analysts call a “bearish crossover.” Historically, similar signals have coincided with market lows, leading some analysts to view the trend as bullish.
More recently, Markus Thielen, the founder of 10x Research, said he thought the bottom would likely be at $55,000 and not until between August and October. Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMex, took a more bearish stance, saying bitcoin would reach a low of around $40,000 over the next six months.
