Bitcoin is trading in a tight range between $59,000 and $60,000 for the fifth day in a row, a quiet period that some analysts say is more dangerous than it seems because of where it occurs.
The range itself is normal. Bitcoin spent much of 2024, from March to October, consolidating between $55,000 and $70,000 with occasional overshoots in either direction. What makes the current setup riskier is its location, Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said in an email to CoinDesk.
This band sits below the levels that triggered the rallies in February and earlier this month, as well as the 50- and 200-day moving averages. Traders are closely watching both averages, and both are currently falling, indicating a bearish bias.
And this is the signature of a downtrend rather than a market building a base from which to climb.
“This is a rather dangerous consolidation for the bulls,” Kuptsikevich said, noting that the 2024 version formed in a rising market while this one forms in a falling market. If the trend breaks lower rather than resolving higher, he said, the next significant decline will be around $40,000.
Some onchain indicators suggest the same thing. CryptoQuant’s pseudonymous analyst Darkfost has reported signs that long-term holders are starting to capitulate or sell at a loss. In past cycles, this phase has provided attractive entry points for buyers, even if it signals near-term difficulties.
