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After a terrible week last week for sports betting in general, but specifically for baseball, I found a way to put myself in favor of the baseball gods this week and won four of the last five games I played. When I’m hot, I want to continue the streak as long as possible, but you also have to stay grounded and make sure you don’t release your bankroll because you never know when it might end. I don’t think that will end in this Pirates-Phillies game.
We are now more than halfway through the season and the Pittsburgh Pirates are sitting at .500 for the season. It’s an accomplishment for this team, but not where they want to end the year. However, they probably need to set their sights on a Wild Card spot at this point. They’re 10.5 games out of the division, which isn’t insurmountable. However, the Brewers are a very good team, and I think the other teams ahead of them will have more resources to make a move at the trade deadline.
Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes delivers during the second inning of a baseball game against the Chicago Cubs in Pittsburgh, Tuesday, September 16, 2025. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar, file)
The Pirates will have to find a way to pitch. Their offense has improved, but only one starter has been truly reliable, and he takes the mound tonight. Paul Skenes is on the hill today, and even though it’s the worst ERA of his young career, he’s still one of the best pitchers in the league. He is 6-7 for the season with a 3.10 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. He is also ninth in strikeouts in the league. The Pirates haven’t gotten off to a good start lately; they lost eight straight games that he started. In fairness, he’s allowed four or more runs in three of those starts, so it’s not just a lack of racing support. The Phillies knocked him down to start this losing streak as he went five innings, allowing five runs on six hits.
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The Philadelphia Phillies are the perfect example of what can happen if you make moves. They severed ties with their manager, and it instantly changed their season. They enter today’s game with a 48-38 record on the year. They were 9-19 on April 26, meaning they went from 10 games under to 10 games over .500. They have to be considered one of the favorites to win the World Series, and they are currently just 2.5 games behind Atlanta for the division crown. However, there is still a lot of time to understand these two elements.
July 21, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler (45) throws a pitch during the second inning against the Boston Red Sox at Citizens Bank Park. (Eric Hartline/Imagn Images)
Before we get there, we have one of the reasons why I think the Phillies should be considered a major threat to win the World Series taking the mound today. Zack Wheeler will take the ball against Skenes in what should be the best pitching matchup of the day. Wheeler is having yet another phenomenal season. He started the season on the injured list, so he doesn’t qualify for anything, but he is 8-1 for the year with a 2.03 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. The Phillies have been excellent in his starts, winning 10 of his 12 outings. He allowed just six earned runs in five starts in June, allowing no more than two in any game.
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Wheeler faced the Pirates in May and dominated. He went seven innings, allowing four hits and no runs. Overall, he was dominant against the Pirates, allowing them only 24 hits in 128 at-bats during his career. Marcell Ozuna is a guy you’d want to write off today because he’s just 12-for-64 with 25 strikeouts against Wheeler.
Zack Wheeler #45 of the Philadelphia Phillies attends a game against the Atlanta Braves in the first inning at Truist Park on June 28, 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Brett Davis/Getty Images)
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The under is going to be something that almost everyone wants to bet on today. I’m a little surprised the total isn’t lower, but that may be because Skenes isn’t pitching as well as in previous seasons. I think he’ll be better in this game than his first game against the Phillies. He seems to be learning and making adjustments well. I don’t know who will win, but I think we should get under 3.5 points in five rounds at +105. If you like, I also really like Wheeler with less than 2.5 earned runs allowed.
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