The seasonal pattern normally goes the other way. In the entire history of bitcoin, the fourth quarter was by far the strongest, with an average gain of 77% with a median close to 48%, the period that repeatedly saved mediocre years.
The third trimester is the opposite, the weakest quarter on average and often flat. In other words, the schedule would normally argue for a quiet third quarter and a strong finish to the fourth quarter. In 2018 and 2022, this seasonal force has failed. The bear market overtook the calendar and the fourth quarter, usually the best, became one of the worst.
A sample of two of them can’t say much on its own, and those two years produced specific collapses that have no exact equivalent today. The comparison doesn’t mean that 2026 has to follow 2018 or 2022, but it does mean that the only other times Bitcoin started a year this weak, the weakness was a symptom of something structural rather than a fleeting decline.
Whether 2026 belongs in this category depends on what’s driving sales, and the drivers feel more like a chore than a panic.
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. have seen record outflows over the past month, the number of active users on-chain has remained near the lower end of its range and capital has been steadily rotating into AI stocks, which just posted their best quarter in years as the crypto fell.
