According to Glassnode data, around 10.83 million BTC are currently held at a loss, meaning their holders paid more than the current price, compared to 9.22 million still in profit. This is the first time deficit supply has exceeded profitable supply since the start of the current cycle and reflects the magnitude of the correction from Bitcoin’s $109,000 peak in January.
Historically, these crossovers have landed near periods of peak financial stress and new buyer capitulation. They also marked the moment when coins migrate from weaker hands to stronger ones, since only holders with high conviction tend to sit on losses rather than sell. The accumulation of long-term holders and increasing balances of portfolio cohorts in several size brackets have accompanied this latest deterioration in profitability.
Bitcoin traded at $61,361 on Thursday, up 0.7% on the day and 2.5% on the week, still about 44% below January’s all-time high, according to CoinDesk data. Ether added 4.2% to $1,702, and Solana led the majors with 18.6% for the week to $80.44, with volume exceeding $3.6 billion.
Whether the supply crossover marks a bottom depends on the following. In 2018-2019 and 2022, similar figures preceded months of stabilization before a lasting recovery. The graph does not resolve itself. The return of ETF flows and the easing of macroeconomic pressures are what converts the accumulation signal into a price signal.
