Bitcoin fell on Tuesday after posting a six-fight winning streak, the longest since March. Regardless, the gains appear fragile based on several indicators.
The most widely followed is Coinbase Premium, which tracks the difference between the price of bitcoin on the US exchange Coinbase (COIN) and Binance. It has now been negative for fifty consecutive days, according to data source Coinglass.
This means that for almost two months, BTC has been cheaper on Coinbase than Binance, which does not operate in the United States. The gap is an indicator of relatively weak demand in the world’s largest economy, a message underscored by eight straight weeks of net outflows from U.S. cash exchange-traded funds. Historically, bull runs have resulted in consistently positive Coinbase premiums.
Another worrying trend is seen in Japan, where bond yields continue to rise. The 10-year yield today hit a 30-year high, pushing up borrowing costs in the US, UK and Germany. A continued rise, especially in Treasury yields, could create a headwind for BTC.
Although seasonality favors the continued recovery, it is ETF flows that matter most, analysts say.
