The tone-deaf response is the current trend. When Iran first closed the Strait of Hormuz in early March, Brent crude topped $100 a barrel for the first time in four years, then peaked near $120, and bitcoin sold off sharply with each escalation.
Part of it is timing. Oil, stocks and bonds are closed for the weekend, so bitcoin is the only major market open to price strikes in real time, and it treats them as a non-event.
The fuller reaction across all assets, particularly crude oil, may not emerge until Monday. About a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil passes through Hormuz, and Brent had already suffered a risk premium over the weekend after tanker traffic crossing the strait remained below normal.
The real test will come on Monday, however, if crude reopens with a clear upside gap while bitcoin holds firm. A calmer oil opening would indicate that the closure of the strait is being interpreted as a threat that Tehran has already formulated and backed away from before.
