For executives and business owners around the world, the war in Iran highlights a key reality: They are operating in a riskier, more unpredictable world.
And that also means more expensive. Even if the attacks end, the increased cost of doing business will persist. Rising prices appear to be a long-term side effect of the war in Iran.
Every business leader says, ‘I have to find options for myself,’ said Kevin O’Marah, director of research at Zero100, a company that researches supply chains. The urgency is felt by leaders across industries, from pharmaceuticals to apparel and electronics.
This means having alternative manufacturers in other regions, stockpiling goods in case of unexpected shutdowns, and developing new supply chains.
“Flexibility is additional factory capacity, it’s additional pockets of inventory, it’s alternative routes,” he said. “But this flexibility costs money. And it’s inherently inflationary.”
Last week, the International Monetary Fund predicted another surge in global inflation, forecasting an increase to 4.7% in 2026 from 4.1% in 2025 due to rising prices of commodities like energy, metals, fertilizers and food.
And these calculations were made when oil prices had essentially returned to pre-war levels, before there was a sharp escalation in hostilities between Iran and the United States and oil prices skyrocketed.
President Trump’s promise this week to require a 20% tax on all goods passing through the Strait of Hormuz, if it comes to pass, could double the cost of transportation, analysts say.
With the disruptions in the strait, shipping companies such as Maersk have had to resort to workarounds. By June, Maersk had delivered 44,000 containers of goods such as furniture, electronics and food to Persian Gulf countries by train and truck.
It is a cumbersome and expensive process. Cargo is unloaded from ships at the Red Sea port of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. It is then trucked to Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain by drivers from Jordan, Iraq and Turkey to meet growing demand.
“It’s obviously not the most efficient way to do it normally, but if the strait is closed, it’s the most efficient way to do it,” said Vincent Clerc, Maersk’s chief executive, adding that the alternative route costs the company about $1,000 more per container.
If disruptions continue, either the resulting higher costs will be passed on to consumers or retailers will see their profits eroded, Mr. Clerc said.
The ripple effect has spread far beyond the Gulf. The cost of shipping a container from Shanghai has fallen slightly from levels reached in late June and early July.
But rates are high by historical standards, according to Rhenus, a global logistics company. “Despite the recent decline, freight rates remain 84 percent higher than a year ago,” the company said in an email.
Southeast Asia has been particularly hard hit. Higher supply chain costs and delivery interruptions interfere with manufacturing planning and schedules.
“Longer delivery times, higher transportation costs and high energy costs can increase pressure on consumer prices,” Rhenus reported.
Longer routes aren’t the only reason delivery times have increased by days or weeks during the crisis. When energy prices soared, some shipping companies began “slowing down” or reducing speed to save money on fuel, said Tobias Bartz, chief executive of Rhenus.
Insurance costs will also remain at the highest risk levels until there is at least six months of stability, Mr. Bartz said. But with each incident, like in recent days, the clock resets to zero.
More importantly, the higher costs will not disappear when the current crisis in the Gulf subsides.
Executives at companies like Copenhagen-based Maersk and French shipper CGM CMA have already said they can no longer rely on a single path but must develop alternatives.
“This is the new operating environment,” concluded Promixa, a global procurement and supply chain consultancy, after surveying more than 500 CEOs of companies that generate revenues of more than $500 million per year.
The mindset is not just about reacting quickly when a crisis arises, but rather about “creating and managing functions that are continuously crisis-ready.” Nearly three-quarters of respondents said they would accept a cost increase of more than 10% to ensure the resilience of their supply chains.
Building this strength in the delivery routes of oil and liquefied natural gas is much more difficult, time-consuming and expensive. Some efforts, including pipeline expansion by the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, were already underway before the Iran war.
But the push was accelerated. Kuwait is so desperate to find alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz that it is considering resurrecting a Saudi pipeline that runs through the Israeli-controlled part of the Golan Heights and has not been used for more than 35 years, said Jamie Ingram, editor of the Middle East Economic Survey, a weekly newsletter and energy intelligence publication.
Oman expands ports outside the strait; Iraq studies pipeline proposals; Saudi Arabia and Turkey are exploring rail links between Jordan and Syria.
As one analyst described it, a “spaghetti crossroads” will take shape in the Gulf as pipelines, roads, rails and ports spring up to ensure energy can get from producers to customers.
For some new projects, Mr. Ingram said, “we are now entering a new era in which the benefits of these investments have moved from fairly abstract theoretical questions to very concrete, tangible, quantifiable benefits.”
Oil exporters like Saudi Arabia and importers like India are also investing in more storage capacity outside the Gulf region.
All this means higher costs.
“We are now in a world where we are not saving for the most efficient option,” said David Goldwyn, a former U.S. diplomat and Department of Energy official. “We are investing in security and in resilience and redundancy.”
Jenny Gross contributed reporting from London.
