When Argentina and Spain take the field on Sunday for the World Cup final, more than $5.55 billion will depend on the winner on the Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets.
People also bet millions on who will win third place and the Golden Boot for top scorer. Others are betting on what the commentators might say or whether this will be Argentina team captain Lionel Messi’s finals.
The event helped attract new users to prediction markets, which have grown rapidly and transformed into a cultural phenomenon in recent months. The sites allow users to bet on the outcome of just about everything, from elections to the details of Taylor Swift’s marriage to the winner of the reality TV show “Survivor.”
Prediction market users are poised to make the World Cup the biggest gaming event in history, analysts say. In June, total betting on the platforms surpassed $50 billion for the first time, largely driven by the soccer tournament, according to data from Dune Analytics, a crypto data tracker. This is up from $2 billion recorded in the same month a year ago.
The performance of prediction markets during the World Cup “exceeded every estimate that any of us had projected,” said Chad Beynon, a gaming and hospitality analyst at financial services company Macquarie Group. He estimated that the World Cup quadrupled monthly transaction volumes on both platforms.
Nearly 270,000 people downloaded the Kalshi app the week the tournament started, according to data shared by the company from Apptopia. Two weeks earlier, there were around 60,000 downloads.
Isaac Arizmendi, a fan of the Mexican team, first downloaded Polymarket in June to bet on the tournament. The 24-year-old, who lives in Los Angeles and works in social media marketing, said he bets on the winner of every match.
“You have a purpose watching this game,” he said. “You bond with people at the bar, like, ‘Oh, you bet money on the game too? Ugh! »
The explosive success of Kalshi and Polymarket – which generate revenue by collecting fees on each bet – has attracted attention. Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta, asked his employees to create a market prediction app.
Traditional gaming companies like FanDuel and DraftKings have started offering their own prediction markets, as has Gemini, a cryptocurrency exchange. Trump Media & Technology Group, President Trump’s social media business, has also rolled out plans for prediction markets.
The growth has also fueled attention to concerns about insider trading and other problematic behavior on platforms.
More than a dozen states have sued Kalshi and Polymarket, citing local laws banning sports betting. In late June, a Michigan judge ordered a temporary halt to Kalshi’s offerings in the state after its attorney general, Dana Nessel, sued the company, accusing it of violating the state’s sports betting laws.
Kalshi’s operations are “unlicensed” and “predatory”, Ms Nessel said in a statement.
However, the markets jumped, thanks to the World Cup. The tournament began on June 11 with an expanded roster of 48 teams playing 104 matches, even more betting than usual. Markets also benefited from increased interest in soccer in the United States, one of the tournament hosts.
Polymarket and Kalshi spent a lot of money on marketing throughout the event. Polymarket launched an ad campaign featuring music producer Rick Rubin and rapper Future, tied to Team USA’s qualification to the finals. “Can the United States win it all? Future asked in the ad.
Kalshi became an official partner of FIFA, football’s global governing body, through a brand and product deal with existing World Cup prediction market partner ADI Predictstreet, a little-known platform. Kalshi’s logo was displayed on the field during the match and its advertisements covered commercial breaks.
After seeing ads for Kalshi “everywhere,” Trisha Kvien, 42, downloaded the app at the start of the World Cup. Ms. Kvien, who works in advertising technology in Central California, bet $25 on the United States to beat Paraguay in the group stage. She made about $11 and was hooked.
She used Kalshi when she attended the Spain v Belgium match last week in Los Angeles, betting on how many corners both teams would take – and even got the rest of the crowd in on the action by counting with her. (She lost.)
“I don’t bet money that I’m not willing to lose,” she said, adding, “I invest it to have the experience and have a good time. And if I win some, I have an even better time.”
