ISLAMABAD:
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) on Wednesday issued a high flood warning for the Chenab River, warning that high flood levels are expected to persist over the next six to eight hours before gradually decreasing as rainfall over major catchment areas continues to decrease.
A strong monsoon incursion interacting with an approaching westerly wave is expected to affect the catchment areas of all major rivers from July 22 to 24, 2026. Widespread rains, including isolated heavy falls, are expected over Gilgit-Baltistan, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Balochistan and Punjab. This could trigger a rapid increase in river flow, flash flooding in hill streams and seasonal rivers, and urban flooding in vulnerable towns.
According to the Flood Forecasting Division of the PMD, heavy rains observed over the Chenab River catchment area, along with hydrometeorological conditions and weather radar data from Sialkot, led to heavy flooding.
Although rainfall has now reduced in major sub-catchments, river flows are expected to remain high for the next six to eight hours before gradually decreasing.
The advisory said the Chenab River at Marala is expected to remain at a high flood stage for the next six to eight hours, while water levels are expected to gradually decrease thereafter if the current rainfall trend continues. He added that Khanki and Qadirabad are also expected to reach high flood levels in the next 10 to 18 hours.
The Flood Forecasting Division said it would continue to closely monitor hydrometeorological conditions, river flows and weather radar observations, and would issue updates if the situation changed.
At the same time, increased monsoon rains increased water flow in Punjab’s river system, prompting authorities to issue flood advisories as low to medium level flooding was reported at several places, while residents living in vulnerable riverine areas were asked to move to safer locations.
The Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) said the second spell of monsoon rains is expected to continue until July 24, warning that additional rainfall in upper catchments could further increase river flows.
The authority reported minor floods in the Indus river at Kalabagh and Chashma, where water flows were recorded at 317,000 cusecs and 295,000 cusecs, respectively. Water levels in the Ravi, Sutlej and Jhelum rivers remain within normal limits, while Nallah Baein is also witnessing minor flooding.
The Chenab River also experiences high flows, with low level floods at Marala and Qadirabad and medium level floods at Khanki. The water flow was measured at 128,000 cusecs at Marala, 152,000 cusecs at Khanki and 157,000 cusecs at Qadirabad.
Besides, the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) said it released 391,900 cusecs of water from various riverine stations on Wednesday, against the total inflow of 597,500 cusecs. Irsa data showed water release of 284,200 cusecs in Kalabagh, 195,700 in Taunsa, 122,300 in Guddu and 53,000 cusecs in Sukkur.
IRSA also reported releases of 60,800 cusecs from the Kabul River at Nowshera and 122,800 cusecs from the Chenab River at Marala, as authorities continued to monitor the evolving flood situation across the country.
The water level of Tarbela Dam stood at 1,514.11 feet, 112.11 feet above its dead level of 1,402 feet, with inflow and outflow recorded at 306,700 and 181,400 cusecs, respectively. The water level of Mangla Dam reached 1,181.60 feet, 131.60 feet above its dead level, receiving 90,300 cusecs and releasing 10,000 cusecs.
Monsoon and Western Disturbances are the two main factors that change the weather in Pakistan; continental air prevails for the rest of the year.
Western Disturbances occur mainly during the winter months and cause light to moderate showers in the south of the country, while moderate to heavy showers accompanied by heavy snowfall are recorded in the north of the country. These westerly waves are deprived of most of the moisture by the time they reach Pakistan.
Fog occurs during the winter season and persists for weeks in upper Sindh, central Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab.
The southwest monsoon occurs in summer from June to September in almost all of Pakistan, excluding western Balochistan, former FATA, Chitral and Gilgit-Baltistan. Monsoon rains bring long-awaited relief from the scorching heat of summer.
