- Adata chief predicts memory shortages could persist throughout the next decade
- Chen says demand for AI still exceeds most industry expectations globally
- DDR5 prices rose another 7% in July despite market optimism.
Chen Li-bai, president of memory chip maker ADATA, dismissed growing market speculation of an impending collapse in AI-related investments.
Speaking after TSMC’s stock price fell following the recent earnings release, Chen argued that talk of an AI bubble remained premature at this stage.
He bluntly stated that any real talk about a potential bubble would have to wait until after 2030.
Global demand still exceeds market expectations
Global demand for AI computing power, memory chips and electricity continues to exceed what most market analysts predicted.
Meta’s recent decision to lease excess IT resources sparked speculation that cloud providers had overloaded their capacity faster than demand warranted.
According to Chen, this interpretation does not necessarily mean that overall demand for AI has fallen below previous projections.
According to him, future AI applications will develop across multiple business models simultaneously, covering B2B, B2G, B2C and B2B2C categories.
Chen criticized analysts who judge the broader AI boom based solely on short-term capital spending or a single company’s usage figures.
Such a narrow approach, he warns, amounts to “seeing the sky through a pipe” that underestimates long-term demand.
Even as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron seek to expand production capacity, Chen predicts a continued shortage in the memory sector.
According to him, electricity, especially green electricity, and memory will remain the two most scarce global resources over the next decade.
Manufacturers are now expected to pursue rational and prudent expansion rather than repeat past cycles of disorderly, large-scale capacity increases.
DDR5 prices already reflect tightening pressure
Actual price data already supports Chen’s underlying argument of a persistent structural shortage rather than temporary market noise.
DDR5 memory kits in Germany increased by 7% in July 2026 alone, reaching new record prices according to 3D Center.
This increase pushed average DDR5 costs 448% above prices recorded in July 2025, representing more than four times increase in a single year.
Much of this increase occurred between October 2025 and January 2026, despite a brief stagnation between February and June.
Beyond AI data centers, Chen expects that robots, autonomous vehicles, unmanned factories, unmanned stores, smart homes, low-orbit satellites and associated ground infrastructure will require additional memory capacity.
He argued that these combined demands cannot be met by the three major memory makers, or even the major Chinese producers, in a single decade.
As AI applications expand from centralized data centers to physical devices and infrastructure, memory shortage could become a structural trend rather than a passing cyclical phase.
For consumers and PC makers already facing high component costs, Chen’s outlook offers little indication that relief is coming soon.
Via Ctee (originally in Chinese)
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