The law of Moore, named after Gordon E. Moore, co-founder of Intel, says that the number of components on a single double chip every two years at a minimum cost. It is not exactly a hard science, but its simple observation of the speed of flea technology progressed in 1965, turned out to be useful enough to predict where technology will be in the years to come.
In his latest blog article, Sam Altman, CEO of Openai, Makers of Chatgpt, has just declared that “Moore’s law had changed the world to 2x every 18 months; It’s incredibly stronger. “Altman referred to the massive drop in prices we saw for the use of AI. For developers, this is measured in cost of tokens, and the cost of tokens to use AI has dropped by about 10 times every 12 months. Between the beginning of 2023 and mid-2024, the price per token for the use of chatgpt dropped by around 150x.
AGO arrives
Technically, Altman was mistaken by writing “18 months” instead of “about two years”. The 18 -month -old figure is a poor current target, because there has been a separate prediction of the colleague of Moore, Intel Executive David House that Moore’s law would mean that flea performance would double every 18 months, without increasing consumption energy. So a forgivable shift.
However, the point of Altman is that the drop in the cost of using AI is another indicator than the general artificial intelligence (AG) “appears”. AG is an artificial intelligence that lives up to human or more intelligent intelligence, and development is the reason why companies like Openai exist because the advantages of Act could really change the world, despite the dangers that We continue to get warned.
It is worth reading the entire blog post of Sam Altman because it reads as a warning that the future happens earlier than we think and that we really start to prepare for the way the world will change. Altman’s predictions are certainly breathtaking. His three key predictions for the immediate future are:
- Scientific progress will probably be much faster than today
- The price of many goods will eventually decrease
- The price of luxury products and some intrinsically limited resources such as land can increase even more dramatically
Altman does not predict these changes which occur in 2025, but as it has already been recorded by saying that humanity will reach act this year, the changes seem to be on our doors.
His message is also that we have difficult choices to come concerning AGE and how much it should be used, because a possible future: “We can see is that AI is used by authoritarian governments to control their population by the mass monitoring and loss of autonomy. “”
In Altman’s vision, ensuring that the benefits of AC are widely distributed is essential to prevent this from happening.
It ends with an astonishing prediction: “Anyone in 2035 should be able to master the intellectual capacity equivalent to everyone in 2025; Everyone should have access to unlimited genius to direct as he can imagine. »»
It is difficult to know how to treat the magnitude of Altman’s vision at the moment. Companies like Openai are determined to develop AG, but the dangers inherent in which controls this technology is something that Altman urges us to start considering and speaking at the moment.
