A controversial $ 7 million bet on the Polymarket prediction platform sparked a disagreement between the Polymarket and UMA communities.
The bet, which supposed if Ukraine would accept a mineral agreement with American president Donald Trump before April, saw his probability pass “yes” from 9% to 100% between March 24 and 25, despite no official agreement being concluded.
Polymarket relies on UMA, an optimistic oracle system, to determine the results of its prediction markets.
In this system, anyone can offer a resolution by punctuating an obligation of $ 750 USDC.E, which can then be disputed. If a dispute occurs, UMA token holders vote to settle the question.
In this case, the BET has resolved “yes”, leading many users to suspect manipulation by a “UMA whale” – a holder of a large number of UMA tokens capable of influencing the vote.
Polymarket replied via its Discord server, admitting that the resolution was unexpected, but denying that it was a “market failure” which would guarantee reimbursements.
He said the market was resolved too early, because no agreement between Ukraine and the United States has been confirmed, but it resisted the UMA voting process to correct the result.
Polymarket has since turned to his community for suggestions on the prevention of future problems, promising clearer rules and updates to come, although it has not yet detailed specific changes.
Read more: Polymarket undergoes a UMA governance attack after actor thug becomes Top 5 Staker
