The negotiation session on Monday will be decreasing as one of the most volatile since the crash covid in March 2020, the global markets taken in the cross-fire while the United States and China do not compete on prices and no superpower shows no impulse to retreat.
While the stock markets were shaking, volatility has spread in each asset class. Bitcoin (BTC), for example, changed up to 10% intraday. The real objective, however, is on the American yield of the treasure at 10 years. It is the so-called risk-free interest rate, that the Trump administration said it wanted to lower because it seems to refinance thousands of billions of national debts.
The yield dropped to 3.9% of 4.8% at the end of last week after President Donald Trump strengthened trade tensions with radical import prices, increasing the demand for cash tickets.
The prices of bonds generally increase, the sending of lower yields, when Wall Street becomes an opposite risk. Exceptionally, as risk aversion increased on Monday, yields increased, going to 4.22%.
This point was not confined to the United States, the United Kingdom has known its clearest rate since the Liz Truss era retirement crisis in October 2022, and gave a global increase, signaling increasing instability and decreased confidence in debt and sovereign currencies.
Ole S Hansen, the chief of the goods strategy in Saxobank, stressed the extent of the movement in long -term treasure bills as a sign of something deeper potentially taking place.
“US Treasury bills underwent a massive sale yesterday, with long yields that increase the most since turbulence during the pandemic epidemic – a possible sign of great treasure holders, such as foreign holders, the sale and the repatriation of their assets,” said Hansen in an article on X. “The US very ury of 30 years, increased lip duration almost 4.30% Until 4.65% in the very lip duration nearly 4.30% at a level above 4.65%, while the lip bench is at the end of 4.30% up to 4.65% yesterday, while the lip benchmark is 4.30% up to 4.65% yesterday, while the benchmark of the bench from the end of the end of the end of the end 4.17% to a low almost 3.85% the previous day.
While Hansen pointed out fingers to foreign sale, in particular China, which would have unloaded $ 50 billion in treasury bills, Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, challenged this story.
“No, foreigners did not sell treasury bills to punish the United States (Trump),” he wrote, pointing a net rally in the Dollar index (Dxy), which climbed 2.2% in just three days.
“If China or other foreigners sold treasury bills … they should convert these dollars into foreign currencies. Otherwise, selling treasury bills and leaving money in dollars in an American bank is useless. If they sold enough treasury bills to swing the yields … the next sale of dollars … would have lowered the dollar. Instead, he joined more than usual.
“This suggests that foreign money moved to the United States, not far from that … The sale was more domestic and more concerned about inflation.”
Despite these opinions, unconfirmed reports on sales of China continue to circulate. In January 2025, China still held around $ 761 billion in American public debt, the largest owner after Japan.
The story that yields at 10 and 30 years old have increased on Chinese are not convincing because most official Chinese investments in dollar assets are not in long -term instruments, but agency bonds, short -term bills and bank deposits.
There is a perception that China can obtain a lever effect in the trade war through its assets of the notes of the American Treasury. This is not necessarily true.
As an economist and author of “The Great Rebalancing: Trade, Conflict, and the Perilous Road Ahead for the World Economy” Michael Pettis has long supported, the assets in China of the US Treasury are directly linked to his current account surplus and he cannot armed these assets against the United States against the United States
It is not surprising that China clarifies its cash investments since 2013, its excess current account culminating during the 2008 accident.
