Bitcoin investors may not feel it exactly, but the BTC was a relatively good bet because President Trump’s pricing plans have led to historical losses on the traditional markets. While actions and other traditional investments have dropped a cliff since the announcement of the “Liberation Day” on April 2, Bitcoin remained relatively stable by losing “only” 8% of its value.
“I think it is the most optimistic draw of 8% that I have never seen in Bitcoin,” said Zach Pandl, research manager at Grayscale, a main investment manager in cryptography.
Based on historical data, you expect Bitcoin three times the volatility of the Nasdaq, said Pandl. And yet, while the Nasdaq dropped by 15% at the start of trade on April 8 (compared to April 2), Bitcoin was nowhere nearly 45%.
In other words, a drop of 8% is a positive because the historical models predicted a much more abrupt fall.
“I think that cryptographic investors should be extremely satisfied with the modest hindsight of Bitcoin,” said Pandl, former analyst of Goldman Sachs, in Coindesk.
“This reflects that prices – although they are a short -term risk event for markets – must probably be something that supports the adoption of Bitcoin in the longer term. I think that relatively moderate withdrawal reflects it,” he added.
Pandl is optimistic about bitcoin in an environment where the dollar potentially loses its place as a global reserve currency.
“Stagflation will be negative for shares and obligations, and, historically, which has been positive for raw materials.
Pandl says that relatively good Bitcoin performance reflects a rotation far from technological actions with large capitalization to basic products like Bitcoin. You can see it in the Bitcoin performance against the “Magnifice 7 ETF” round. You can now buy more of this ETF with Bitcoin compared to a week ago.
For those who subscribe to the long -term Bitcoin investment thesis as a refuge in uncertain times, the last days have been a test case where Bitcoin wins. In theory, these defenders say, Bitcoin should benefit from them because investors are looking for alternatives to dollars during stress.
“If you believe that erosion of the dollar position is part of Bitcoin’s thesis, then your conviction in this thesis from last week should have increased,” said Pandl.
It expects the price of Bitcoin to increase in the medium term, reaching new heights of all time this year.
“The price of bitcoin is decreasing, but conviction is increasing and it is not necessary to modify price prospects in the medium term,” he said.
