Bitcoin tests $76,000 for a third day, trading at $75,440 as bullish traders continue to eat up $450 million in sell orders between $75,900 and $76,300, according to CoinGlass data.
Orders will be placed by traders who are either attempting to sell short the high end of the range expecting a return to around $68,000, or by those defending against a breakout with higher liquidation risk.
U.S. stocks hit record highs Thursday as the war in Iran appears to be ending following a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.
The cryptocurrency market has outperformed stocks since the start of the war and is now taking a back seat.
Positioning of derivative products
- Activity in the cryptocurrency futures market picked up, with bitcoin briefly surpassing $76,000 during European trading hours. Total market volume increased by 28% to $225.8 billion, while open positions (OI) increased slightly by over 1.5% to $126.68 billion.
- Most notably, total liquidations jumped 140% to $529 million, with short positions slightly outpacing long positions, suggesting a slight tightening of short positions and mounting upward pressure in the market.
- Solana’s SOL is leading the growth of OI among the largest cryptocurrencies. In 24 hours, the number of active contracts on Solana futures increased by 11% to SOL 5.53 billion, the most since March 18. Dogecoin is another highlight, with OI hovering at a six-month high of 14.17 billion DOGE.
- SOL capital inflows appear to be driven by a growing appetite for bullish positioning, with positive funding rates and 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta (CVD) signaling increasingly aggressive buying pressure.
- Signals for dogecoin remain mixed, as a positive CVD indicates buying pressure, while slightly negative funding rates suggest lingering bearish sentiment among derivatives traders.
- Cardano’s ADA is leading on an OI-adjusted CVD basis, highlighting strong buyer dominance and bullish positioning.
- The collapse in volatility continues, indicating market calm and supporting further bullish price action. BTC’s 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) fell to a new 2.5-month low of 43.35%. Ether’s index, EVIV, is hovering near the recent low of around 65%.
- On Deribit, BTC and ETH options continue to show a bias towards puts, a sign of lingering bearish fears. Overall, the market appears positioned for gains, but it is not yet ready to turn completely bullish.
Symbolic discussion
- Altcoins lagged bitcoin on Friday as traders waited for a possible breakout or rejection before making speculative bets.
- The bitcoin-heavy CoinDesk 5 Index (CD5) is up 0.8% since midnight UTC, while the altcoin-dominated CoinDesk 100 (CD100) is slightly in the red.
- The CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) was the worst-performing benchmark, losing around 2.8%, with several tokens giving up the bulk of Thursday’s gains.
- CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” indicator is at 37/100, a neutral zone after reaching 53/100 last month and 19/100 in February.
- While the broader altcoin market is subdued, a small portion of the market is outperforming; KAS added 3.9% while PENDLE and AERO gained 3.5% and 2.5% respectively.
