Bitcoin traded near $62,600 on Tuesday, down 0.3% over 24 hours and roughly flat for the week, according to CoinDesk data. The market is stable on the surface, but the underlying macroeconomic context has reversed.
President Trump reinstated the U.S. blockade of Iranian ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and demanded a 20 percent tax on all other goods moving through the waterway, reigniting a conflict that a June peace deal appeared to have resolved.
Brent crude rose 2.8% to around $85 a barrel, its second day of gains, and traders increased their bets on a Fed rate hike.
This combination applies directly to cryptography. Rising oil fuels the inflationary pressure that kept the Fed in a hawkish stance through June, and the easing of that pressure has been a big part of allowing Bitcoin to recover from its late June low near $58,000. The peace swap is now taking place and the odds of a rate hike are increasing.
Bitcoin spent a month between around $59,000 and $66,000, and the majors are mixed. Ether was holding near $1,783 and is up for the week, while Solana, XRP and Hyperliquid are all down 5% or more over seven days.
Today’s June inflation figures are the most immediate test. A moderate reading would ease the pressure for a rate hike that the Iran news has just reignited. A hot signal, especially with the rise in the price of oil, would add a second hawkish signal to the first, two weeks before the Fed meeting on July 28 and 29.
