Bitcoin is currently down about 50% from its October 2025 all-time high of around $124,000. Trading at nearly $62,000, it has spent the last five months hovering between $60,000 and $80,000, leaving the market in a state of apathy.
But a closely watched onchain metric suggests this period of calm could pave the way for a significant move.
Glassnode’s RHODL ratio, which compares the wealth held by long-term holders with that of new market participants, reached 6.5 in early July, its second highest reading in Bitcoin history. It has since started to decline and is now below 6. Importantly, this compression occurs as the price stagnates rather than collapses.
In 2022, the ratio reversed alongside a violent sell-off. The collapse of FTX sent Bitcoin down to around $15,000. The situation in 2026 looks different. Bitcoin continues to trade near $60,000 as coins change hands with no sign of panic.
This suggests a gradual shift in supply from long-time holders, many of whom have accumulated throughout 2023 and 2024, to a new cohort of buyers who view current prices as a discount.
