Bitcoin is closing in on $75,000, a price it has repeatedly failed to surpass since early February, putting the broader crypto market under scrutiny after more than two months of trading in a limited range.
Traders built short positions around this level, betting on another rejection. Data from CoinGlass shows that around $200 million of shorts would be liquidated if BTC rose above $75,500 – a dynamic that could accelerate any move higher.
At the same time, macroeconomic sentiment is improving. US stocks rebounded on Monday, with the S&P 500 index posting its highest close since before the escalation of the Iranian conflict, after President Donald Trump signaled his willingness to strike a deal with Tehran.
Precious metals also made a comeback on Tuesday, with silver rising 2.9% since midnight UTC, while gold gained 0.7% to $4,775 an ounce.
Positioning of derivative products
- Notional open interest (OI) in crypto futures reached $126 billion, the highest since January 31, according to Coinglass.
- Ether’s OI jumped to 14.99 million ETH ($35.79 billion), the highest since July. The growth likely comes from increased demand for bullish bets, as the 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) is positive, indicating that aggressive buying is dominating the flow. Positive funding rates also suggest the same.
- Bitcoin OI hit an all-time high of 767,000 BTC, while positive CVD and funding rates also signal bullish positioning.
- ZEC, SOL, and HYPE are other notable coins showing bullish trends.
- It is worth noting that while funding rates are positive for most tokens, they are not unusually high. This is a sweet spot for a move higher and indicates the market is not overheated.
- However, the 30-day implied volatility (IV) indices for bitcoin and ether, BVIV and EVIV, have stopped declining over the past two days. Until recently, rising spot prices were accompanied by falling IV, a dynamic that has now changed, with IV stabilizing even as prices continue to rise. If this divergence persists or widens, it could raise questions about the sustainability of price gains.
- Deribit data shows dealer gamma positioning is deeply negative at $75,000. So, if BTC rises above this level, traders could buy shares in the rising market to hedge their exposure at a neutral level. This could accelerate the uptrend. Likewise, if prices fall from $75,000, dealers could sell into a falling market, thereby accelerating the decline.
- Bitcoin puts remain more expensive than calls across all time frames, as shown by risk reversals. In the case of ether, sentiment has turned bullish in favor of calls for near-term maturities. The long term continues to show a bias for puts.
Symbolic discussion
- The altcoin market takes a back seat in Tuesday’s attempted breakout, with the bitcoin-dominated CoinDesk 5 (CD5) and CoinDesk 20 (CD20) indexes posting gains of 0.5-0.7% since midnight, outpacing altcoin-weighted benchmarks.
- Ether (ETH) is up 0.7% since midnight, beating majors XRP and SOL, down 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively. ADA lost 2.2% overnight.
- Memecoins BONK, FLOKI and WIF cooled after a sector-wide rally on Monday, each losing between 2.4% and 3% since midnight as traders focus on Bitcoin’s potential breakout.
- Ethena (ENA) gained 5.6% in the last 24 hours, before returning 4% during Asian and European hours.
- The altcoin market is delicately balanced. If bitcoin rises above $75,000 and consolidates, new capital will turn into more speculative bets. For now, the focus is on BTC.
