The Iran war bounty is back and crypto is paying the price.
Bitcoin slipped 2.1% over the past 24 hours to $75,633 in Asian hours on Thursday, down 3% for the week, while Brent crude jumped 7.1% to $126.41 a barrel – the highest intraday level in four years – according to an Axios report that President Donald Trump is set to receive a briefing on new military options against Iran.
The report adds that US Central Command has requested the deployment of hypersonic missiles to the Middle East, which would mark the first time US forces have used these weapons in combat. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since the war began in late February, choking off the flow of crude, natural gas and petroleum products.
Such activity results in a war premium, which refers to the portion of an asset’s price determined by the risk of conflict rather than the fundamentals of supply and demand. Brent has carried a heavy haul all year, with prices up more than 100% year-to-date.
The global benchmark is now on a nine-day winning streak, the longest since May 2022, and is up more than 100% since the start of the year.
Ether fell 3.4% to $2,244 and was down 4.4% for the week. XRP fell 2.1% to $1.37, down 3.7% over seven days. Solana lost 2.6% to $82.62. BNB lost 1.9% to $615. The only green print in the top 10 outside stablecoins is dogecoin, up 3.8% on the day and 10.1% on the week to $0.10.
Risk assets yield gains across the board. Nasdaq 100 futures erased a 1.1% rebound fueled by strong profits from Alphabet and Amazon, the MSCI Asia-Pacific stock index fell 1.4% and European stocks were poised to fall 1% at the open.
The dollar appreciated and bonds fell as surging oil prices and continued hawkish Fed policy sapped demand for fixed income. 10-year Treasury yields remained near their highest level since July, and Japanese 10-year bonds rose to their highest level since 1997, according to Bloomberg.
Bitcoin’s resilience at the start of the war is being tested. The asset held in a tight range between $74,000 and $78,000 through April, even as oil rose from $98 to $126 and the conflict entered its third month. Each escalating headline has produced a sharper pullback, and the cumulative damage is beginning to be felt.
BTC is now $50,000 below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000.
Fernando Lillo, director of the Zoomex exchange, said in a note that any breakout above $80,000 requires the unwinding of the war bounty.
“Bitcoin is attempting to break through the key $80,000 level, which would require a resolution to the Middle East conflict and, consequently, a fall in Brent crude oil prices below $100 per barrel,” he said. “One is impossible without the other, and the US administration’s plans to maintain a prolonged naval blockade against Iran become a real obstacle.”
Lillo raised a possible scenario in which the Trump administration would lift the blockade in the coming days and present it as a response to “positive steps by Iran” to hold a relief rally.
“A possible lifting of restrictions in the region and a decline in oil prices could trigger an accelerated influx of capital into risk assets, paving the way for Bitcoin to consolidate above $80,000 and move towards $85,000.”
