Bitcoin’s rally toward $75,000 is hitting a supply wall just as institutional demand holds steady.
This increase is largely due to macroeconomic flows rather than a strong surge in speculative activity. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to attract steady inflows this month, including around $240 million in a single session following geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, according to market maker Enflux.
This supply helped push BTC from around $71,000 to around $70,000, even as traditional markets absorbed rising oil prices and changing rate expectations. This trend, Enflux noted, reflects allocation behavior rather than a continuation of momentum.
But as Bitcoin rises, the character of the market begins to change.
On-chain data suggests that supply is starting to emerge more aggressively as prices approach a key cost base level for short-term holders. According to CryptoQuant, around $76,800 is the so-called realized price for recent buyers, in fact the average entry point for traders who accumulated during the last phase of the pullback. In weaker market regimes, this level has often acted as resistance, as previously struggling investors take advantage of rallies to exit stalled.
It is worth noting that the same band limited the January rebound almost to the dollar before prices reversed towards $60,000.
CryptoQuant said bitcoin exchange flows reached around 11,000 BTC per hour, the highest since late December, as prices tested the $75,000 to $76,000 range.
At the same time, the average deposit size increased to around 2.25 BTC, the highest daily reading since mid-2024, suggesting that larger holders are driving this trend. The share of large transfers increased from less than 10% to more than 40% of total inflows in a matter of days, a shift that the company says has historically coincided with increased pressure on distribution.
This creates a two-sided market.
On the one hand, ETF flows and macroeconomic trends continue to be a constant source of demand. On the other hand, large holders appear to be taking advantage of the rally to reduce their exposure, thereby feeding the market with liquidity as prices approach a widely watched breakeven point.
What emerges is less an impasse than a transfer. Long-term holders appear to distribute coins directly into ETF demand – CryptoQuant flag trading flows and ETF entry flows are, in fact, two sides of the same transaction, visible in different datasets.
The success of this transfer depends on whether the new holders prove more sticky than the exiting ones. This is an end-of-cycle model, and it resolves in two ways.
The result is a market that can grow quickly on inflows, but struggles to maintain those gains once supply is established. A sustained breakout above the mid-$70,000s would likely require demand to absorb a growing wave of selling pressure. Failing that, the scales could tip in the other direction, writes CryptoQuant, leaving bitcoin vulnerable to a pullback towards $70,000, where the final stage of the rally began.
