Bitcoin soared to $74,935 on Thursday, up 0.7% over 24 hours and 5.4% over the week, as U.S. stocks closed at record highs following reports that the United States and Iran had reached an agreement “in principle” to extend negotiations beyond the ceasefire expiration on April 7 next week.
The S&P 500 finished up 0.8% and the Nasdaq 100 1.4%, both all-time highs, capping a two-week rally from late March lows.
Ether led the major tokens, up 8.1% for the week to $2,360, extending the outperformance against Bitcoin that emerged earlier this week. XRP gained 3.6% to $1.41, dogecoin rose 4.8% to $0.098 and Solana added 2.2% to $85.
The stock rally is ahead of what other markets are willing to confirm. Long-term Treasury yields barely moved. Gold was near $4,800. Brent crude soared as high as $95 as the United States continued its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed.
“Stocks are essentially expressing their view that the war in the Persian Gulf is essentially over,” Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, wrote in a note.
Crypto derivatives desks do not value the same conviction. QCP Capital wrote in a telegram on Wednesday that bitcoin’s rally was led by one-off actions rather than as part of a new, broader risk.
Funding rates for Bitcoin perpetuals are still negative and open interest has eased, suggesting that shorts are resisting the move rather than capitulating. Initial implied volatility remains subdued, one-month volume is trading below three-month volume, and 30-day risk reversals at 25 delta still show more demand for downside protection than upside exposure.
Simply put, the options markets are cautious about pricing, even if the cash market is recovering. The cost of Bitcoin options expiring in the coming weeks is unusually quiet for a true breakout, and traders continue to pay to protect against a decline rather than betting on a larger rise. This is the signature of a rebound, not a change in trend.
“Markets may be in favor of the ceasefire, but the main risk remains unresolved,” QCP wrote. The company highlighted the gap between Iran’s 60% enriched uranium and U.S. demand for less than 20% enriched uranium as a structural problem that a master title cannot resolve.
Ether’s outperformance is the only signal that cannot be explained by Bitcoin-specific flows.
The closely watched ETH/BTC ratio – which tracks the price of ether relative to bitcoin – climbed to around 0.0315 on Wednesday, recovering from the February 2026 low near 0.028 and marking ether’s first sustained period of strength against bitcoin in months.
Ethereum’s on-chain fundamentals have been diverging in price for weeks, with network transactions hitting a record 200.4 million in the first quarter and stablecoin supply hitting an all-time high of $180 billion.
Traders can watch the next risk aversion session for clues. Ether holding up better than Bitcoin on a red day would suggest that the rotation into riskier assets is real, while a stronger decline would indicate that Ether is simply riding in Bitcoin’s footsteps with a higher beta.
Traders are also watching whether the U.S.-Iran framework will survive negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program before the ceasefire expires next week. The reading of the QCP, that it is a relief rather than a resolution, is the one worth testing first.
