Someone buys $2.1 billion worth of bitcoin via ETFs. Someone else is using this offer to get by.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have now seen eight straight days of inflows totaling $2.10 billion through April 23, according to SoSoValue. This is the longest streak since the nine-day run in October 2025 that took Bitcoin to its all-time high of $126,000. April 23 alone brought in $223.21 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for about 75% of the increase at $167.49 million and Fidelity’s FBTC the only significant outflow at $16.93 million.
Bitcoin rose from $68,000 to $77,000 during the streak, a 12% rise that coincided almost perfectly with the return of ETF supply. Cumulative ETF net inflows since launch now stand at $58 billion and total assets reach $102 billion, or 6.5% of Bitcoin market capitalization.
But here’s the part that the ETF data doesn’t reveal.
A Glassnode report released earlier this week showed that Bitcoin has just reclaimed its true market average at $78,100, which tracks the actively traded average supply cost basis. This is the first time this level has been found since mid-January and historically marks the transition from a bear market to something more constructive.
The problem is the next level. The short-term holder base cost is $80,100, which is the average entry price for anyone who purchased in the last 155 days. Exceeding this threshold would push more than 54% of recent buyers to make a profit.
In every previous instance of this cycle, this threshold has coincided with the formation of the local top, with short-term holders taking advantage of the rally to break even and exit. This is the second time the structure has come together, and it collapsed the first time.
The profit made by short-term holders has already reached $4.4 million per hour, per Glassnode. The $1.5 million threshold has preceded every local peak since the start of the year. The current reading is three times higher.
The configuration from here is specific. Funding for Bitcoin perpetuals is still negative, meaning shorts pay off longs. Saturday’s short squeeze took bitcoin to $78,000 briefly before Hormuz’s overthrow pushed it back.
A second squeeze, related to ETF supply and spot demand that Glassnode reported recovering in offshore locations, is the clear path to $80,000. Whether this breakout resists the distribution of short-term holders or is sold the same way every local top has been sold this cycle, that’s the trade.
March’s seven-day streak surpassed the same week the price hit its local high. IBIT alone has delivered most of the current rise, while smaller issuers have seen mixed flows. The structure is not identical but the pattern rhymes.
The ETF supply is real. The exit liquidity it provides to short-term holders is also real. Which team will win at $80,000 is worth watching.
