The crypto bear market is likely over, affirming that a new cycle fueled by tokenization and artificial intelligence-driven financial services is starting to take shape, said Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine (BMNR) and co-founder of Fundstrat.
Speaking at Consensus 2026 in Miami on Thursday, Lee highlighted the importance of Bitcoin. The recent strength is a historic signal that the market has left behind the downtrend that saw prices fall from $126,000 in October to $60,000 in February.
After positive monthly returns in March and April, BTC is still up around 5% in May so far, which would be the third consecutive positive monthly return.
“You will never be in a bear market if bitcoin shuts down for three months in a row,” Lee said. “If bitcoin closes above $76,000 this month, the bear market is definitely over.”
The CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index closed April at $76,300, while the asset is currently trading just below $80,000.
Lee said investors remain psychologically entrenched in the latest crypto downturn and are underestimating the strength of the current rebound. He also pointed to bullish technical signals from veteran trader John Bollinger, who recently said his trend patterns had turned positive for Bitcoin.
Adding to the bullish narrative, Lee noted that software stocks – a sector that has been battered due to fears that AI will disrupt its business model and recently upgraded Fundstrat – have historically traded in close correlation with bitcoin. Since tensions escalated between the United States and Iran, Lee added, crypto assets have outperformed most traditional markets, with ether (ETH) leading the gains.
Tokenization and AI agents drive the next cycle
Two megatrends disrupting finance are fueling the next crypto bull market: all assets migrating on-chain called tokenization and artificial intelligence (AI) agents using blockchain rails.
Lee argued that AI agents will need money to move value autonomously and will increasingly rely on blockchain networks and tokenized financial systems for this.
He pointed to stablecoin adoption as proof that the transition is already underway. Stablecoin trading volumes have already surpassed Visa payments, he said, while pointing to Grayscale’s report that the $300 trillion securities market will eventually migrate to blockchain rails as tokenized assets.
“The networks that host a lot of the token activity are going to capture the economic value,” Lee said.
This shift could radically reshape the economics of finance itself, he argued. Lee compared JPMorgan — which is expected to earn about $60 billion this year with 300,000 employees — to companies like stablecoin issuer Tether. and retail giant Jane Street, which generates similar levels of profits with only a fraction of the workforce.
“Digital-native businesses that use blockchain as a means of settlement eliminate many processes and people,” he said.
According to Lee, crypto-native financial companies could increasingly resemble the internet companies that have supplanted media and telecom giants over the past two decades.
“In 10 years, half of the world’s largest financial institutions will be digital native,” he said.
UPDATE (May 7, 5:01 p.m. UTC): Adds presentation slides cited by Tom Lee during his Consensus 2026 keynote speech.
