Just like Bitcoin seemed to have built momentum for a breakout above $80,000, macroeconomic uncertainty re-emerged as a headwind.
The most notable development came from the Pentagon, which told U.S. lawmakers in a classified briefing that mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil bottleneck, could take at least six months, and that the process would not begin until after the U.S.-Iran conflict ends. The briefing also warned that gasoline and oil prices could remain high until the midterm elections, according to the Washington Post.
Persistently high energy costs risk keeping inflation stable, leaving the Federal Reserve with limited room to cut interest rates, a negative backdrop for risk assets. Bitcoin, in particular, remains very sensitive to interest rates and global liquidity conditions rather than actual economic activity. Rising costs of essentials like fuel and food could also reduce investors’ willingness to allocate capital to speculative assets.
These risks are already appearing on the markets. WTI crude has climbed to around $95 from $79 late last week, while government bond yields rise in major economies. The US 10-year yield rose eight basis points to 4.32% this week, and its UK counterpart rose 18 basis points to 4.96%.
“Oil prices are rising alongside yields and widening volatility spreads, signaling tightening financial conditions and increasing market risks,” said Michael Kramer, founder and CEO of Mott Capital Management.
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Speaking of key metrics, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see strong demand, with funds seeing their fastest inflows in a month based on the seven-day moving average of net flows tracked by Glassnode.
Some analysts nevertheless urge caution, arguing that the rally lacks broad support in the spot market.
“Bitcoin’s recent price increase is driven entirely by demand in the perpetual futures market. Meanwhile, spot demand continues to contract (albeit at a slower pace). The same thing happened in January, when Bitcoin peaked at $98,000. There is a risk of a correction if traders start taking profits while spot demand continues to contract,” Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said on x.
The market capitalization of USDT, the largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, reached a record high of $188.88 billion. Meanwhile, speculation on non-serious tokens such as reaches its climax, with an overpopulation of bullish bets. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today. For a full list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is the trend
Signal of the day
The chart shows fluctuations in the price ratio of bitcoin and gold, displayed as a candlestick. The red line represents the 50-day moving average, the white line the 100-day moving average, and the yellow line the 200-day moving average.
The ratio has continued to increase and now exceeds the 100-day average. More importantly, the 50-day average could soon rise above the 100-day average, confirming a bullish crossover. As the name suggests, this suggests a change in bullish momentum.
This would mean continued outperformance of Bitcoin against gold.
