Bitcoin The recent rise towards $80,000 is showing signs of strain, with low trading volume and subdued derivatives activity raising questions about how long the rally will last.
In a weekly report, Markus Thielen, director of 10x Research, highlighted a disconnect between price action and underlying market participation. “Bitcoin is up 4.7% over the past week, but the accompanying data tells a cautious story beneath the surface,” he wrote.
Trading volumes fell sharply. Bitcoin’s weekly volume was 17% below average, while ether (ETH) volume fell 20%. At the same time, funding rates – a measure of leveraged positioning – remain deeply negative. “Funding rates fell 6.8% to the 3rd percentile and volumes collapsed 33% to the 4th percentile,” Thielen said, adding that the rise “was driven by spot buying or short covering rather than leveraged long conviction.”
This distinction is important. Spot purchases, often tied to institutional demand, tend to be more stable but less explosive than leveraged trades. This also leaves the market without the type of momentum typically seen in strong bull runs.
Institutional flows were a positive point. Bitcoin ETFs have seen nine consecutive days of inflows, helping to bring April’s total inflows to $2.5 billion. Bitcoin’s dominance has also climbed to 60%, indicating that capital is concentrating in the largest cryptocurrency rather than dispersing across the market.
Thielen nevertheless warned that the structure of the rally remained fragile. “The market has moved from an environment of more active trading to one in which participants are largely on the sidelines,” he wrote, describing a “low-funding, low-volume regime that historically reflects hesitation rather than momentum.”
Options markets reinforce this view. Volatility has fallen to the lower quartile of its historical range, and traders anticipate relatively modest price movements in the week ahead. “The market is pricing in a relatively calm environment,” the report notes, even as sentiment indicators approach high levels.
Ethereum paints a similar picture, but with even lower participation. Volumes have fallen by more than 50% and derivatives positioning shows limited risk appetite. “Implosing volumes indicate a market where conviction remains low and participants are largely disengaged,” Thielen said.
Despite these signals, the pattern is not completely bearish. As leveraged long positions are limited, the risk of forced liquidations to the downside is reduced. “The short-term risk/reward ratio is asymmetric to the upside if a catalyst appears,” Thielen wrote.
This catalyst may come from outside the crypto space. The report highlights macroeconomic developments as the key factor that could determine the direction in the days to come. For now, Bitcoin’s rally appears intact, but without stronger participation, it may struggle to sustain itself unless broader market conditions provide support.
