The crypto market remained upbeat on Thursday as bitcoin has been trading near its weekly high around $93,500 and ether rose to $3,200 after completing its upgrade to Fusaka.
The Fear and Greed Index has risen to 27/100, moving out of the “extreme fear” zone as a degree of optimism begins to enter the market.
It is worth noting that bitcoin and the majority of other tokens remain in a downtrend since early October, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows. To break the trend, Bitcoin needs to start reaching highs above $98,500, which would show signs of a significant bullish reversal.
The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) added 1.13% over the past 24 hours as the market began to strengthen following Tuesday’s rally.
Positioning of derivative products
- Bitcoin’s 30-day options-based implied volatility index, BVIV, fell to 48.44%, the lowest since November 14, reversing the trend to 65% on November 21, when spot prices fell to near $80,000 on some exchanges.
- The decline invalidates the September uptrend line, indicating a low volatility environment ahead, which supports the bullish scenario for the spot price.
- The ether volatility index fell to 72%, the lowest since November 3.
- On Deribit, BTC puts continue to generate a premium over calls across all time frames, while ether options show a slight uptrend after the August 2026 expiration. This is a sign of continued demand for protective put and call crush strategies.
- The $100,000 call option has once again become the most popular options play, with open stake of $2.82 billion.
- Chokes dominated block flows in bitcoin and ether.
- In the futures market, ZEC saw open interest (OI) growth of over 6% in 24 hours and ETH OI increased by 4%. There are signs of speculative activity in FART futures, where OI has increased by 22%.
Symbolic discussion
- The altcoin market remains subdued despite broader market strength.
- CoinMarketCap’s “altcoin season” indicator fell to 20/100 after being five points higher at the start of the month.
- The move highlights how investors are showing signs of favoring bitcoin over altcoin plays that typically carry more risk.
- There have been a few exceptions to this rule over the past 24 hours: TAO, ENA and AVAX all posted gains between 4.5% and 8.5%.
- On the other hand, hedera (HBAR) fell 3.8% as momentum from the introduction of a spot ETF begins to fade, alongside trading volume, which fell 15% to $245 million in the last 24 hours.
- The difference between today’s altcoin market and that of a year ago is stark: in late 2024 it was filled with viral memecoins and the emergence of decentralized derivatives exchanges, whereas now it appears that the retail audience has left, or moved on, leaving a series of tokens that rise and fall based on actual development rather than purely speculative sentiment.
- This maturation bodes well for future cycles, as it means sectors have the potential to outperform broader trends, as demonstrated by the recent surge in privacy coins during a period where bitcoin and ether fell to multi-month lows.
- Incidentally, privacy coins have now entered a corrective phase after a rally from September to late November. ZEC lost 29.4% over the past week while DASH fell 22%.
