Cryptocurrency market clings to crucial support level, with bitcoin barely moving since midnight UTC after rebounding on Thursday from its lowest level since September 2024.
The largest cryptocurrency was recently trading near $59,700, after falling to $58,100.
Ether (ETH) failed to mirror Bitcoin’s rebound, falling another 1% and extending its streak of declines to three consecutive days. He recently held around $1,550.
U.S. stocks also start Friday showing weakness, with Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures down 1% and 0.4%, respectively, since midnight, as the tech rally of the past three months continues to fade.
One token that resisted the bearish market sentiment was aave which has risen as much as 6.8% since midnight, building on a 17% gain over the past week after CoinDesk reported that crypto exchange Kraken was looking to acquire a 15% stake in the DeFi company.
Positioning of derivative products
- Market volatility continues to weigh on leveraged futures positions. Over the past 24 hours, an additional $1 billion in positions were liquidated, with long positions once again making up the majority. Notably, ETH has seen more liquidations than BTC over the past 12 hours.
- Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) increased for the second day in a row to 778,000 BTC, a sharp increase from recent lows near 730,000 BTC. Open interest surged during Thursday’s selloff, suggesting traders added to short positions on the dip in anticipation of further decline.
- The situation is different for ether futures, where open interest has remained stable near the 14 million ETH level since at least June 15. This is somewhat constructive, as it indicates that traders are not aggressively shorting the price decline. A similar pattern applies to XRP.
- Solana’s open interest has retreated from record highs, but remains elevated compared to recent months, indicating the potential for continued volatility.
- The OI-adjusted 24-hour cumulative volume delta continues to show bearish dominance across most of the top 25 cryptocurrencies, with the notable exceptions of BNB, SOL, and TON. The negative reading suggests that bears are more aggressive than bulls, favoring market orders over passive limit orders. This trend has persisted since Tuesday.
- The 30-day annualized implied volatility indexes signal increasing levels of concern. Bitcoin’s BVIV index jumped to 53% earlier today, its highest level since June 7 and a sharp rise from the June 16 low of 39%. The ETH index soared to 66%.
- Wall Street’s equivalent, the VIX, also rose from 15% to 20% recently, but remains within the range seen since early April, indicating that stocks are not yet in panic mode. A similar message comes from the U.S. Treasury Market Implied Volatility Index, MOVE.
- On Deribit, the bias for one-week Bitcoin options is approaching 30%, reflecting a substantial premium for puts, or defensive positions, over calls and underscoring strong downside fears. The one- and three-month spreads convey a similar message.
- Block flows included a large trade in the $53,000 put expiring on July 10, as well as a request to reverse the ether risk.
Symbolic discussion
- Aave has outperformed the broader altcoin market, and honorable mention goes to solana (SOL), which has added 2% since midnight and is now trading around $68.95 after falling to $64.05 on Thursday.
- AI tokens continue to unfold; RENDER, NEAR, FET and TAO lost between 1% and 1.5% on Friday, extending their decline.
- Hyperliquid (HYPE) also fell, falling 2.6%. It has now lost 18.5% since hitting a record high 12 days ago.
- Ethena (ENA) remains one of the worst performing altcoins, losing another 5% on Friday. It has now fallen 34% after hitting the month’s high on June 3.
- ENA’s predicament can be attributed to the current bear market, as part of the platform’s yield generation strategy is linked to positive funding rates, which have now turned negative.
